Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 151649 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1149 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
dry conditions and below normal temperatures are expected into
early next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
dry and relatively cool conditions are expected today in advance of a
weak cold front. Latest visible satellite shows a narrow swath of
cloud cover through cincy/Columbus/new philly/Oil City, as pre-
frontal moisture remains trapped under the inversion. These clouds
will continue eroding with mixing. Farther north, a more expansive
swath of cloud cover is located north of I-80. While some erosion is
expected, increasing lower-level moisture should allow these to
linger through later fropa.
The front will sag southwards across the area Friday
evening/overnight. Precipitation chances will be low due to limited
moisture and upper support. However, cross sections and forecast
soundings indicate a saturated boundary layer (sfc to 3-4kft) by the
evening, aided by northwest flow off of the lake. With no cloud ice
present, some patchy freezing drizzle is not out of the question with
weak lift ahead of the front during the evening.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
high pressure will build back in on Saturday and expect limited
cloud coverage by the afternoon as winds aloft veer east.
Temperatures are expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees below average.
Saturday/Saturday night will be the coolest of the period before a
gradual warming trend begins on Sunday.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
ridging should maintain dry weather heading into next week before
unsettled conditions return. Overall there is good agreement with the
idea of broad troughing being the dominant feature in the extended,
but confidence is relatively low in the details. The first in a
series of shortwaves is currently progged to cross the region later
on Monday and Tuesday...with potential lake enhanced shower activity
lingering into Wednesday across northern zones. The next low pressure
system will impact the region later Thursday and Friday.
A gradual warming trend is expected through the period, with
temperatures returning to near average levels by mid week.
Aviation /16z Friday through Tuesday/...
fkl will struggle to reach VFR conditions today; a shallow status
deck is expected to linger as northwest flow over Lake Erie prevails. Sites
elsewhere shall maintain VFR conditions for the majority of the day
as high pressure over the southern Ohio River valley persists.
A weak cold front will move through the region this afternoon. Lack
of deep lift and moisture will prevent precipitation development, but
moisture trapped beneath the Post-frontal will create MVFR cigs for
areas mainly north of kpit.
Building high pressure over northern New York early Saturday morning
shall clear skies quickly and VFR conditions is expected to return.
MVFR/IFR conditions may return Monday as a new system moves over the