Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 190723
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
323 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
high pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend. Rain
chances return Sunday night and Monday with a crossing cold front.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure across the region should maintain sunny skies today.
Highs are expected to be a few degrees above the seasonal average,
with dew points continuing in the 40s and 50s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
mid and upper ridging is expected to build further across the upper
Ohio Valley region through Saturday, as the sfc high drifts south.
Rising heights and SW flow should result in a warming trend through
the period. Some models indicate some showers developing Saturday
with a brief flattening of the ridge. Maintained a dry forecast given
the strength of the ridge, and with model progged soundings
unfavorable for precip.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
ridging should maintain dry and warm weather Sunday. The ridge is
progged to break down Sunday night as a trough tracks east out of
the plains. The trough, and its associated cold front, should return
scattered showers to the forecast as they track across the upper Ohio
Valley region. Dry and cooler weather should then return Tue and Wed
as sfc high pressure builds under northwest flow aloft.
Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period with high pressure
and dry air in place. The exception is for isold areas of River
Valley steam fog, which may affect fkl early this morning.
restrictions are possible with a Sun night/Mon cold front.