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000 
FXUS61 KPBZ 190009
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
809 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmth, humidity, and daily thunderstorm chances will continue
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The eve update featured some POP adjustments based on the latest
radar trends as convection north of Pit continues to weaken rapidly
with loss of daytime warmth. Indications of Midwest convection
progress continue although rapid degradation is expected before
arrival over the Upper Ohio Region late tonight. Have upped POPs to
the chance category given the aforementioned progress and high res
model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect mainly diurnally supported isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms Monday as convective thresholds are again met. With 
somewhat less instability from near PIT and south, and weak ridging, 
continued with lower/isolated POPs in this area, with slightly higher
POPs/scattered coverage north. Above average temperature is expected
to continue Monday.

Zonal flow, north of a Southern CONUS high, is expected to persist 
across the region Tuesday. Shortwaves embedded in the flow should 
maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm chances as warm and humid 
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track from 
the Upper Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes regions by 
Wednesday. Included a period of likely POPs with FROPA. Surface high 
pressure building under NE CONUS upper troughing should return dry, 
cooler and less humid weather by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR is anticipated outside of isold to sct convection. The
better chance of that occurrence will be for BVI and FKl, but all
sites wl have a vcsh mention for the overnight passage of a decaying
storm complex.

.Outlook...
Mainly aftn/eve restrictions are possible thru Tue with diurnal 
tstms. Restrictions are likely with a Wed cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

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