Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190009 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 809 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warmth, humidity, and daily thunderstorm chances will continue through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... The eve update featured some POP adjustments based on the latest radar trends as convection north of Pit continues to weaken rapidly with loss of daytime warmth. Indications of Midwest convection progress continue although rapid degradation is expected before arrival over the Upper Ohio Region late tonight. Have upped POPs to the chance category given the aforementioned progress and high res model trends. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect mainly diurnally supported isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday as convective thresholds are again met. With somewhat less instability from near PIT and south, and weak ridging, continued with lower/isolated POPs in this area, with slightly higher POPs/scattered coverage north. Above average temperature is expected to continue Monday. Zonal flow, north of a Southern CONUS high, is expected to persist across the region Tuesday. Shortwaves embedded in the flow should maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm chances as warm and humid conditions continue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track from the Upper Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes regions by Wednesday. Included a period of likely POPs with FROPA. Surface high pressure building under NE CONUS upper troughing should return dry, cooler and less humid weather by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... General VFR is anticipated outside of isold to sct convection. The better chance of that occurrence will be for BVI and FKl, but all sites wl have a vcsh mention for the overnight passage of a decaying storm complex. .Outlook... Mainly aftn/eve restrictions are possible thru Tue with diurnal tstms. Restrictions are likely with a Wed cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.