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fxus61 kpbz 141843 
afdpbz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
243 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Synopsis...
dry, seasonable weather will continue until a cold front brings
showers and breezy conditions to the region on Wednesday.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

High pressure is forecasted to center over the Ohio River valley
tonight, scattered clouds from the remnants of weak cold front will
slowly dissipated. With strong radiational cooling, and where wind
dies completely, patchy frost may form; most likely near I-80.

&&

Short term /Tuesday through Thursday night/...

As a strong upper-level low north of Lake Superior lifts
northeast Tuesday, a new trough is anticipated to track across
Alberta and into the upper- Midwest. This system is expected to
deepen near Lake Michigan as height levels swing into phase. Ahead
of this system, southerly flow and warm air advection will keep the
temperature slightly above the climatological average.

As the front races into Ohio early Wednesday morning, the pressure
change in our region may reach 7 to 10 mb in 6hrs; as a result,
strong wind gusts should prevail before the front approaches and
after. Models continue to maintain wind gusts for the ridges near
Wind Advisory criteria; however, confidence at this early stage is
not sufficient to raise headlines.

Based on model soundings, the lack of upper-level instability should
omit the chance of thunder accompanying wednesday's front. Due to the
swift movement of this entire system, rainfall totals should remain
manageable; 0.50 inches on average.

Once the front exits Wednesday afternoon, lake-enhanced and upslope
showers should linger near I-80/Laurel Highlands into Thursday as northwest
flow prevails. With a strong pressure gradient, breezy conditions are
forecasted to continue into Thursday afternoon.





&&

Long term /Friday through Sunday/...

High pressure is expected to build across the Great Lakes Friday, dry
and quiet conditions are expected to prevail. With a wind shift from
the south and prompting warm advection, the temperature should lean
above the climatological average for the weekend.



&&

Aviation /17z Monday through Friday/...
dry air on the flank of the broad and deep srn Canada low wl
maintain VFR through Tuesday. A reinforcing cold front is progged to
cross the region this aftn/eve, resulting in a wind shift to the west-northwest and
few to locally bkn strato cumulus.

Deep mixing coincident with peak heating will allow for gusts up to
20 kt this aftn, both ahead of and behind frontal passage.

Outlook...
restrictions and gusty sfc wind are likely Wed as strong low pres
crosses the Great Lakes.

&&

Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.

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