Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 190800
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
400 am EDT Fri Jul 19 2019
heat and humidity will plague the region through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
rising heights and strong warm air advection will provide a hot and
humid day across the region. All heat related headlines remain in
Shortwave trough will cross the Great Lakes this afternoon and then
dive southward on the eastern flank of the ridge. Position of the
ridge, and timing off the wave will be crucial to placement of late
afternoon convection. Models are not in very good agreement with
timing or scope of possible convection, but will keep in pops across
a portion of the region late this afternoon. Atmosphere will be
plenty unstable, so a stronger, to isolated severe, cell cannot be
ruled out. Additionally, with dewpoints in the 70s, storms will be
capable of producing heavy rain.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
convection that develops this afternoon will dissipate during the
evening as the atmosphere stabilizes and the upper level wave moves
southeast of my forecast area.
The heat and humidity will continue into Saturday. The heat
advisories/warnings will continue into Saturday with apparent
temperatures being relatively similar each day. A cold front will
begin crossing the region Sunday, bringing showers and thunderstorms
to all locations.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the front will complete its passage of the forecast area Sunday
night, although showers will linger into Monday morning to the south
and east of Pittsburgh. Behind the cold front, high pressure will
dominate the Great Lakes region with much cooler temperatures.
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
general VFR forecast for the period. Have included the mention of
predawn fog in the usual ports, although confidence is low in the
development of fog.
Surface winds will increase as the afternoon approaches due to an
increase in atmospheric mixing.
the next chc for widespread restrictions will come with an early week
Ohio...excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
PA...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for paz007>009-
WV...excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
Heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for wvz021-