Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 170453 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1253 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
dry weather and warm temperature are expected the rest of the week.
Near term /through today/...
no changes to the overnight period.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies over the upper
Midwest, bringing increasingly dry air to the region.
Short term /tonight through Thursday/...
the amplifying upper ridge will build eastward through the week with
very high confidence, leading to strengthening sfc high pressure,
drying low levels and strong insolation. Temperature are likely to
be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as the western-Continental U.S. Trough lifts into the Midwest late this week,
the eastern-Continental U.S. Ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/sun. The net
result will be swly flow aloft by Sat afternoon, persisting into
early next week.
Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until
late sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen
ahead of an advancing cold front.
Until that time, wx should be dry, temperature will increase
steadily and will remain above average.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
patchy IFR stratus is possible early this morning at fkl with some
low level moisture behind an exiting cold front. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the taf period under building high
pressure and dry advection.
no widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.