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FXUS63 KPAH 190827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The main issue in the short term remains the oppressive heat and
humidity. Temperatures on Thursday were held down some over parts
of the area by mid level clouds. This was especially true in much
of western Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Where there was more
sunshine in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, temperatures
managed to reach the lower 90s and heat index readings topped 105.

With less cloud debris today, it appears that the entire area is 
in for disgustingly hot and humid conditions, which will likely 
continue into Saturday and Sunday as the region remains under the 
influence of an upper level ridge sprawled across the southern and
central U.S. About the only uncertainty is the balance of heat 
and humidity. At this point, we have highs forecast to reach the 
middle 90s both today and Saturday, with readings a degree or two 
lower on Sunday. Dew points are progged in the middle 70s both 
afternoons due to mixing. Should dew points not drop as much as 
forecast, afternoon temperatures would likely be a few degrees 

However, the end result is still oppressive heat and humidity, 
with little relief at night considering lows in the mid to upper 
70s. Peak afternoon heat index readings are forecast to reach 103
to 110 across much of the area through Sunday. Given the longevity
of the heat and humidity, will continue the Excessive Heat Warning
through Sunday for the entire area. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The primary concern in the long term period is the potential for 
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday in association with the 
passage of a cold front. Forecast confidence is higher than average 
with relatively good model agreement.

The upper level ridge responsible for oppressive heat and humidity 
late this week should be in the progress of retrograding to the west 
late in the weekend. The developing northwest flow on the east side 
of the ridge will allow the approach and passage of a cold front
Sunday night into Monday. This will increase the chance for showers
and thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through
Sunday night and Monday. While isolated strong to severe storms 
cannot be ruled out, weak atmospheric wind profiles suggest little
potential for an organized severe weather threat at this time. With
high atmospheric moisture, locally heavy rain will likely be the 
primary concern.

In the wake of the front, a refreshingly cooler and drier air mass
will take hold as high pressure builds south from Canada. Highs
are forecast to drop back into the lower and middle 80s Monday
through Wednesday, with some recovery late next week. Dew points 
are forecast to drop to near 60 by next Tuesday, which will allow
low temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 60s during much
of next week.


Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Other than very patchy fog early this morning, VFR conditions are
forecast through daybreak Saturday. Some cumulus development is 
possible by late morning and afternoon, probably scattered at 
best. Southwest winds around 5 knots early this morning will 
increase to near 10 knots with some gusts to 15 knots by the 


IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-

IN...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.


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