Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kpah 170018 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
718 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

issued at 713 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For aviation section only.


Short term...(tonight through Tuesday night)
issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

A weak boundary is located across our northern County Warning Area this afternoon
with moisture pooling along it. The result is dew points in the
low 70s and surface cape in excess of 3000 j/kg along the I-64
corridor. A few isolated showers have recently developed. The cams
aren't indicating much, but some hint at continued southward
propagation of very isolated convection through early evening.
The majority of the region will remain high and dry.

There is some concern for fog development early tomorrow morning,
with the light winds and clear skies in place. Also, some of the
hi-res guidance is hinting at additional isolated activity over
southeast Missouri as the boundary gets hung up over there. Given
the prolonged dry pattern, it wouldn't be a surprise if the cams
are overdone again. Thus, holding off adding a slight pop mention
at this time.

With light northeast flow tomorrow, temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees lower. Although with dew points remaining up
around 70, portions of the region will continue to flirt with 100
degree heat index readings (southeast MO, far west KY, far
southwest il).

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

The upper air pattern in the long term will be characterized by a
weakening ridge over the southeast U.S., As the blocking flow off
the East Coast relinquishes its hold, and allows a trof out west to
become more prominent with time. Wednesday through Thursday should
be dry as a strong surface high holds across the Appalachians, with
low pressure over the plains. The southerly flow regime will keep US
quite warm, though dew points will not be too bad. Friday, on the
west periphery of the 500 mb high, some of the guidance shows a weak
disturbance moving across the area. So some diurnally supported
convection cannot be ruled out. After that, the focus turns to the
increasingly unsettled SW flow aloft from the plains up toward the
Great Lakes. Saturday through Saturday night, energy within the flow
supporting convection should stay mostly to our northwest. However we will
maintain a slight chance pop for mainly southern Illinois into semo. The
chances for showers and storms should expand south and east Sunday
through Sunday night. It is unclear how defined sunday's system will
be. The consensus is for at least a weak trof moving toward or
across the area along with an approaching front, providing
additional support. We will see. It's been hard to get rain in here.
The models can take on a quick bias. It may take another day or so.
Overall, respectable model agreement, including what is shown in the
ensemble mean data.


issued at 716 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Main concern for this taf period will be with fog development
overnight/early morning with some areas seeing patchy MVFR/IFR
vsby reductions. Winds will become calm overnight and turn around
to the northeast tomorrow morning around 5-7 kts.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations