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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
620 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Short term...(tonight through Sunday night)
issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Our much anticipated cold front is continuing to move slowly
south across the middle Mississippi and Tennessee valleys today.
At midday, based on surface observations and radar, the surface
front has moved just south our our region. However, the 850 mb
front was bisecting our region from north to south and is the main
focus of our lingering shower activity in southeast Missouri and
eastern portions of the pennyrile region of west Kentucky. Our
lingering showers should continue to dissipate, especially after
sunset, and we could still see a few showers pop up between these
two areas this afternoon.

By late evening the pah forecast area should be dry, and it should
remain dry into early Saturday morning. With the surface front
lingering just south of our region, some models develop scattered
convection in southern portions of southeast Missouri late
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Included slight to low
chances for showers and storms to account for this potential. Loss
of heating should provide dry conditions for our entire area
Saturday evening.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, models show the
western portion of the cold front to our south pushing north, and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the southern half of our region. By Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, models show a mid/upper level trof nosing into the
middle Mississippi Valley. We should see gradually increasing
chance of showers and storms as a result.

With northeast to east winds through the weekend, daytime high
temperatures will remain well below normal with readings in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will generally be within a
few degrees of seasonal.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

In the extended forecast period, we will start with a negatively-
tilted trof in the mid levels over our region on Mon, thus there was
a good pcpn signal in the models, especially east of the MS river,
and mainly during the diurnally unstable afternoon hours. This
feature is progged to quickly move away to the east or east-
northeast late Mon as it merges with a larger shortwave feature
developing across the upper Midwest and southern Canada. Thus, there
will probably be a lull in the pcpn across the pah forecast area Mon
evening despite continued low level moist flow.

Early Tue, the medium range models appear to agree that a surface
fropa associated with the larger system will occur. This should
provide yet another ramp-up of pops for our region, especially south
of the Ohio River, on Tue.

Most deterministic model indications are that Post-fropa, dry high
surface pressure will be invading the pah forecast area under
weakening northwesterly flow aloft by midweek (wed/thu). However,
the latest National blend of models had some slight chance and
chance pops in for that period, which we downplayed as much as
possible in a collaborative way. We should begin to notice lower
dewpoints (and mainly lower lows) by Tue night. Fri should be
essentially dry.


issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the 00z Saturday weather forecast office pah taf issuance, lower VFR clouds should
thin and dissipate as drier air slowly filters in with the frontal
passage through the taf locations. Persistent northeast winds and
VFR conditions should dominate within the first six hours of the
forecast and persist for the remainder of the forecast period.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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