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fxus63 kpah 261103 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
603 am CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 150 am CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

For today through tonight, a subtle mid level wave will move east-southeast
across the region today, as surface high pressure remains centered
just to our southeast. Enough moisture and instability along with
the wave should result in scattered showers and storms from midday
through early evening, best chances semo, southern IL, west Kentucky.
Chances should end tonight with the loss of heating.

Pops will remain in for Thursday, though slightly lower as 500 mb
heights rise and ridging develops from the Ohio Valley back into the
Central Plains. 700 mb/h4 DPVA should be enough for convection to get
going during the day. Dry Thursday night.

Friday through Friday night looks to be mainly dry. Cannot rule out
very isolated afternoon convection. But a decrease in overall
moisture should limit chances. Temperatures will generally be near
normal for late June. Friday will be on the hot side with highs in
the lower 90s most areas.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 150 am CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

An expansive upper level ridge will dominate the weather pattern
across a large portion of the central and southern U.S. From late
this week into early next week. This should act to keep the most
active weather well north of the region. The weakness in the ridge
shown by models yesterday is indicated perhaps a bit further south
today. As a result, it appears more likely that warm mid level
temperatures may effectively inhibit most convective updrafts
through much of the period. An isolated instability driven shower or
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out in the heat of each
afternoon. However, that chance (10 percent) appears too low to
mention over the weekend. The chance may begin to increase slightly
over mainly southeast Missouri on Monday, then area wide on Tuesday,
but still not any higher than 20 percent.

Temperatures through the period will be about as seasonable as can
be expected. Daytime highs should average in the lower 90s, with
nighttime lows in the lower 70s. With the humidity forecast, peak
heat indices should climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees
each afternoon.


issued at 603 am CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Mainly VFR today through tonight. Scattered showers and storms
possible this afternoon and early evening. Probability too low
to include in the terminals beyond thunderstorms in the vicinity. Winds south-southwest up to 10 kts
today, otherwise light.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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