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fxus63 kpah 200017 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
617 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

issued at 614 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Forecast has been updated to increase fog coverage across much of
the cwa, mainly after midnight into the mid-morning hours
Wednesday. Model soundings show the best potential for patchy
dense fog will be from the kmvn area into the Evansville tri-
state, where winds are lightest and there is a strong saturated
inversion. Plan to issue an Special Weather Statement to highlight the fog potential for
now, but headlines could be needed later.


Short term...(tonight through friday)
issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Seeing the last bits of energy round into the base of the trof,
impacting our far northeast with clouds/some very light
attendant front is drug thru this PM. Should see clearing trends
establish more firmly tonight with incoming high pressure...southwest
to northeast trend, as northwest to southeast moving clouds/pcpn
pivots eastward into mean trof.

We warm up nicely tmrw with high pressure overtop/moving east
across forecast area and plenty of sunshine. 60s become more prevalent
south, with mid to upper 50s north. Clouds do start to increase
from west late tmrw, as ridge shifts east and next storm system
takes shape/approaches from west.

Clouds overspread, lower, and thicken over forecast area tmrw night, with
pcpn chances coming in after midnight. Column is warmed enough for
all liquid event in short term. Incoming front with some
warmth/instability Thursday, not enough to include thunder at this
writing but it gets close to the semo Ozarks Thursday PM. Shift to
more overrunning event Thursday night-Friday, as northern stream
energy moves east of Great Lakes, and we become more southern
stream energy focused in southwesterlies aloft. Good qpf of 1-2
inches anticipated by end of day Friday.

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Models bring a surface low just south of the pah forecast area by
06z Saturday, moving it northeast through central Kentucky Saturday
morning. This will continue rain chances across our region Friday
night. Colder air coming in on the back side of this low may cause
rain to mix with or change over to snow mainly across southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri late Friday night into early
Saturday morning. During this same time period, precipitation will
be gradually tapering off from west to east, so with only a few
hours of wintry potential, very light to no accumulation is
expected. Dry conditions will return by Saturday afternoon as
clouds decrease from west to east. Lows Friday night will be in the
lower to middle 30s, with highs Saturday well below seasonal in the
middle to upper 40s.

Surface high pressure over Texas Saturday night will slide east
across the Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Our region
will see dry conditions for the second half of the weekend. Lows
Saturday night will drop into the upper 20s, but winds will shift
back to the southwest Sunday into Sunday night due to the movement
of the surface high. This will cause temperatures to rebound for
Sunday and the first part of the work week. Highs Sunday will climb
to around 50 degrees, then Monday and Tuesday will reach the lower
to middle 50s. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower 30s, and
Monday night will see readings in the 35 to 40 degree range.

Models bring a strong surface low from the Central Plains toward the
middle Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday. A little light
rain may make it into our far west and northwest counties late
Monday night, then rain will spread across the pah forecast area
through the day Tuesday. There are some minor timing differences in
the models on how fast the rain will spread east, but the agreement
is good enough to warrant good chances by Tuesday afternoon.
Fortunately, with mild air in place, the event should be all


issued at 436 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

With the trough gradually moving east of the weather forecast office pah taf sites
tonight, a surface high pressure ridge axis will move into the
area. Slower clearing of MVFR/VFR ceilings will occur at kmvn,
kevv, and kowb during the evening.

Model guidance is strongly hinting that moisture and stability
near kmvn and kowb will support LIFR/IFR visibilities and vertical
cloud bases that could briefly support IFR ceilings following the
clearing of the main cloud cover this evening.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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