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fxus63 kpah 151725 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1225 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Update...
issued at 1221 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18z tafs.

&&

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 229 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Extremely quiet weather-wise, but hot. Summer-like temperatures
with highs in the 90s expected.

Overall pattern at 500 mb has a rather large ridge over the
southern rockies with weak troughs off the West Coast and over
the Great Lakes. Warm air advection along an 850 mb jet is keeping
thunderstorms going over Iowa and northern Illinois along with the
weak upper disturbance. Humberto is off the East Coast of
Florida.

Ridging over the Ohio Valley becomes more amplified by Tuesday at
500 mb with 850 temperatures remaining about the same around 18
degrees c. The atmosphere is generally dry, so not much in the way
of precipitation during this period.

Dew points rise slightly Monday which will allow for a few
locations (mainly over semo, extreme southern Illinois and far
west kentucky) to go just above 100 on the heat index.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 229 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019

The long term period begins with the mean ridge still holding firm
over the Mississippi River valley, and Humberto drifting out to sea.
Surface high pressure extends across the entirety of the Ohio and
Mississippi River valleys. So a hot/dry forecast continues.

There is a low pressure storm system moving across the central
Canadian interior, and dragging a cold front across the Great Lakes.
However, the models keep the ridge strong, effectively shearing off
any southern portions of this boundary, and we stay high/dry into
Friday.

By Friday, the surface high pressure system has centered over
southern Appalachia, and return flow southerlies inject a higher
fetch of dew points. We accept the blend's push of 70f into the
Ozarks/semo, and with another day of temps near/in the 90s, this may
be just enough to touch off an isolated shower or storm out there.
Otherwise, there's just no forcing in the atmosphere to get anything
going, beyond the isolated heat of day possibility.

Another front looks to approach from the northwest next weekend. The
ridge is holding strong over the eastern U.S., But this front may
end up sneaking in enough to give our next best chance of
rain...just beyond the scope of this package.

Summer temps continue, with lower 90s and upper 60s/near 70 daily.
Dew points mostly in the 60s means heat indices for the most part
stay out of the triple digits. An exception might be the Ozarks
Friday afternoon, when the dew points near 70. Isolated shower/storm
chances then may mitigate that impact, however.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1221 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

VFR conditions with very light surface winds and only some cirrus,
most of which will be along the I-64 corridor. Some guidance hints
at shallow fog developing again around kcgi near sunrise, similar
to this morning. Decided to forego inclusion at this time due to
low confidence.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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