Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 141124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
524 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019
the November 14-15 12 UTC taf discussion follows:
unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected through the
Any stratus is expected to stay north (kansas) or east (eastern
oklahoma) of any terminals. North winds will gradually shift to
the west/southwest at most terminals this evening into tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019/
A fairly quiet period is expected over the next week with
temperatures climbing to near average and only slight chances for
rain. A weak front currently moving through the area will keep
temperatures cool today before gusty southerly winds bring a
warming trend Friday into the weekend ahead of our next system.
There is still some disagreement in the models on how this system
will evolve, as the ecm model has a stronger wave and a greater
quantitative precipitation forecast signal for our area than the GFS. Have leaned more towards the
ecm solution, expecting that as the wave moves through it will
likely be enough for at least a few showers during the day Sunday,
but amounts will be rather light. The best chances appear to be
across central and southern portions of the area.
The airmass behind this system will not be very cold, with downslope
flow mostly offsetting weak cold air advection. Highs Sunday will
therefore be fairly similar to Saturday, in the 50s to low 60s.
Stronger downslope flow will warm temperatures even more on
Monday, and mild conditions will continue through the middle of
next week. Models then diverge greatly on how to resolve the
interaction of a cutoff low south of California and the next
northern stream wave moving into the West Coast for the middle to
end of next week. For now, retained slight chances for rain
Wednesday night into Thursday awaiting better model consensus.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 27 56 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 28 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 28 58 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 30 63 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 27 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 30 57 33 59 / 0 0 0 0