Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 192323
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019
the 00z aviation discussion follows....
aviation weather conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly
tomorrow across much of Oklahoma and North Texas, as low-level
moisture surges north. This moisture will precede a storm system
and cold front that will move across the region on Thursday. The
extra moisture will lead to low-level clouds and low ceilings, and
possibly areas of haze during the day, and mist at night. Showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms are also expected, especially
toward the end of the period. In addition, low-level wind shear
may be a problem late tonight over much of the region.
Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/
No big changes to the short term forecast. For Tuesday afternoon and
evening, warmer than normal temperatures are expected to continue.
Relative humidity values in the 20s in western Oklahoma may need to
be monitored for possible fire weather conditions for the rest of
the day today. This fire potential should lower over the evening as
winds and temperatures decrease.
Two rounds of precipitation are still expected over the rest of the
week. First will be associated with the low pressure cyclone off the
Baja Coast that will be ejected into the area Wednesday into
Thursday. With it being the remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond,
ample Pacific moisture will be ejected with this low, to where some
model soundings have indicated record precipitable water values for
mid November. The upper level divergence associated with the low
coupled with this moisture should provide enough support for
widespread precipitation starting in western Oklahoma and western
North Texas on Wednesday afternoon. These precip chances will expand
eastward Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
The second round will be associated with the "kicker" upper level
cyclone and the associated surface cold front. The cold front will
begin moving through the area from the northwest on Thursday
morning. The lingering moisture will allow the precipitation to
become widespread through Thursday evening into Friday, with the
precipitation exiting eastward. Based on forecast soundings, snow is
possible for western and northern Oklahoma, however above freezing
surface temperatures should prevent any accumulation from occuring.
Temperatures will rebound over the weekend and the weather is
expected to remain clear. The next weather event for the forseeable
future will be early next week starting next Tuesday. While most
long term models agree that there should be an event that occurs,
there is little consensus on the timing and the type of event that
will occur (in particular, rain vs snow). For now, we will
continue to rely on a blended approach for the forecast, and we
will just have to play the waiting game to see how things shake
out within the models.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 54 68 53 61 / 0 90 60 50
Hobart OK 52 68 47 59 / 0 90 40 30
Wichita Falls Texas 55 72 56 66 / 0 90 50 60
gage OK 50 69 38 53 / 0 90 10 20
Ponca City OK 50 67 48 59 / 0 90 70 30
Durant OK 51 72 60 71 / 0 20 50 70