Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 koun 102341 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
541 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

tafs 1100/1124...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A light and
variable wind tonight will become southerly and increase
on Wednesday.


Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/


Fairly quiet and cool conditions across the area this afternoon, as
last night's system continues moving eastward leaving only some
lingering high clouds across eastern Oklahoma. Tomorrow will see
temperatures warm by 5-10 degrees as winds return to southerly. The
next system will move through on Thursday but should pass by with
little impact. Breezy conditions remain possible Wednesday night
into Thursday morning but winds should subside through the day
Thursday. Temperatures won't change much behind this system, with
readings remaining near average into Saturday.

Meanwhile, an Arctic airmass originating across northern Canada will
move southward into the northern plains. With the upper pattern
remaining somewhat zonal the core of this Arctic airmass will
remain to our north and east, but at least a glancing shot will
approach northern Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, a
shortwave diving southeast over the mountain west will provide
ascent and precipitation is expected to develop across Kansas and
possibly into northern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon into Monday. At
this time, the majority of the heavier precipitation looks to
remain in Kansas, but some light snow or a rain/snow mix is
possible across northern into perhaps central Oklahoma given
cooling thermal profiles during this time period. Of note, the 12z
GFS ensembles show large spread during this timeframe so
uncertainty is still fairly high. If the shortwave tracks slightly
further south than currently forecast, winter precipitation and
impact potential would increase for our area (as shown by the 12z
ecm), especially for northern Oklahoma. Behind this system, colder
temperatures remain in place for Tuesday.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 29 53 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 27 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 28 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 27 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 27 53 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 27 53 32 54 / 0 0 0 0


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations