Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 220332
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1032 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
06z taf discussion below.
VFR ceilings expected this taf period. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible through Thursday night although chances are too
low at some times and/or locations for mention in some tafs.
Strong variable winds possible near storms. Outflow boundaries
will also affect winds.
Previous discussion... /issued 627 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/
0z taf discussion below.
VFR ceilings expected this taf period with some mid and high
clouds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some areas,
with the highest chances generally along and north of I-40 into
tomorrow afternoon. However, chances are too low at times and/or
in some locations for mention in tafs. Strong variable winds are
possible near any storms.
Previous discussion... /issued 358 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/
isolated showers and thunderstorms currently along an outflow
boundary in far northwest Oklahoma are expected to gradually
weaken by this evening. For tonight, a shortwave in the mid
levels will be digging across the southern High Plains and
bringing a summertime cool front into northern Oklahoma. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the surface boundary
across our north, especially as the low level jet strengthens
overnight. With downdraft cape values just over 1000 j/kg on
forecast sounding in far northern Oklahoma, a few of the elevated
storms could produce some severe wind gusts, as a marginal risk is
in place across our counties bordering the Oklahoma/Kansas state
line. By sunrise Thursday, the frontal boundary is expected to
stall nearly along the I-40 corridor, bringing chances for showers
and thunderstorms into central Oklahoma. As the mid level wave
continues to move through, pops will increase further south to the
Red River. With the increasing chances of rain and cloud cover,
the nbm high temperatures were a little bit too warm for Thursday,
so adjusted them down to the mid 90s.
Another shortwave trough moving through will keep probability of precipitation for thunderstorms and rain
in the forecast for Friday into Saturday morning hours. By Sunday,
an upper high across the southwestern U.S. Will build in ridging
across our area, bringing the heat and humidity back into the
forecast, with dew points back up into the 70s. However, a rather
long wave trough across the northern plains of the country will
be advancing southward, bringing in a more stronger cold front
with rain possible across our area. At least by day 7
(wednesday), below normal temperatures are possible behind this
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 76 95 72 92 / 20 30 50 40
Hobart OK 75 97 73 97 / 20 30 40 30
Wichita Falls Texas 77 97 75 97 / 0 10 30 30
gage OK 70 91 67 93 / 50 40 30 30
Ponca City OK 73 88 70 84 / 40 40 60 40
Durant OK 76 96 75 96 / 20 10 20 30