Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 082353 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 PM CST sun Dec 8 2019
09/00z tafs. Will keep mention of MVFR cigs at kpnc behind cold
front tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Strong
northerly wind shift will spread over the region tomorrow,
entering northwest Oklahoma near 12z and pass through ksps by 18z.
Previous discussion... /issued 229 PM CST sun Dec 8 2019/
main concerns continue to be with regards to precip chances Monday
afternoon into Tuesday across Red River valley.
Surface trough across western Oklahoma will hang around the area
as an area of surface low pressure moves out of southeast Colorado
toward western Oklahoma tonight. This is in advance of
approaching storm system that will bring parts of southern
Oklahoma and North Texas some rain by late tomorrow.
As we go through tonight and tomorrow the surface low will shift
east across the area with breezy and mild weather replaced by cool
and breezy conditions by Monday afternoon. Although the surface
cold front will push well south of the area by Monday afternoon,
precip is expected to develop along and elevated boundary (near
700mb) as upper trough swings through the Southern Plains. There
still appears to be a low chance of some light freezing rain on
the back side of this system Tuesday morning across southern
Oklahoma and western North Texas as temps drop to near freezing,
but does not look to have a significant impact at this time.
Another upper wave will move across the area by the latter part of
the work week, but will be lacking moisture and other than
perhaps some sprinkles or virga, looks to go through dry with
little more than an associated wind shift.
A bit stronger system will move through the central/Southern
Plains and may bring some light snow to far northern Oklahoma
Sunday, otherwise dry and seasonal temperatures expected through
much of the forecast period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 47 53 29 47 / 0 0 10 0
Hobart OK 47 55 28 48 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 54 62 33 48 / 0 20 30 10
gage OK 37 47 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 39 48 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 56 66 32 45 / 0 20 60 30