Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 081108
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
508 am CST sun Dec 8 2019
12z taf discussion below.
VFR conditions expected this taf period with cirrus streaming
across the region. Visibility may briefly reduce this morning at
a few sites especially kpnc but chances seem too low at this
point for a mention in the taf. Wind direction will change several
times at several taf sites throughout this taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 303 am CST sun Dec 8 2019/
infrared Sat currently shows an area of low stratus and fog slowly
creeping northwestward toward southeast OK. Went ahead and added some
patchy fog across southeast OK for this. An additional area of patchy fog
may try to develop toward sunrise across north central OK.
Otherwise, expect warm conditions by this afternoon under the
influence of fairly Stout westerly downslope flow. Mid 70s still
appear likely across western North Texas. Overnight lows into Mon
morning should also be above avg with a pre-frontal sfc trough,
downslope flow, and cirrostratus present. The cold front should
quickly start to dive south just after sunrise Mon and enter North
Texas by 18z. Meanwhile, aloft, a mid to upper trough will start to
move into West Texas. Increasing moisture and lift are expected just
behind the front near the Red River Mon night so will keep high
chances near hear. The heaviest precip should remain just to our
south. It appears enough saturation through the column and cold
air could support brief wet snow across portions of western North
Texas early Tue morning, but will end as quick as it started so do
not anticipated any accumulation at this time.
Much colder temps are expected behind the front Tue, with most
locations not making it into 50s during the afternoon. Temps will
warm back to avg by Wed as a mid to upper shortwave trough moves
over the plains ahead of trough over the central rockies and
southerly low level flow increases slightly. This upper trough
will move into the Southern Plains Thu but only expect an increase
in high clouds with it. The extended forecast generally appears
dry and slightly above avg although a cold front, or two, may
impact our forecast area by the end of next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 46 52 29 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 67 46 53 30 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 71 53 62 34 / 0 0 10 30
gage OK 65 37 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 60 41 48 22 / 0 10 0 0
Durant OK 68 56 67 33 / 0 0 10 60