Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 121824 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019
12/18z tafs. VFR conditions through the period. Winds will veer
around to southerly this afternoon and become gusty overnight and
Previous discussion... /issued 557 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019/
VFR conditions will continue until 131200. North wind will
decrease this morning and become south in western Oklahoma then
Previous discussion... /issued 222 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019/
cold today; warmer tomorrow...
An unseasonably cold airmass has resulted in record or near
record low temperatures with many locations currently in the teens
and single digits. Wichita Falls has already broken their
previous record low temperature (24 deg f in 2013).
For today, abundant sunshine and lighter winds are expected as
the surface ridge axis moves by the Southern Plains. Winds will
shift to the south this afternoon as the ridge moves into eastern
Oklahoma. Even with maximum insolation, temperatures will remain
quite cold for mid-November with highs in the 30s to near 40 deg f
(~30 deg f below average).
For tomorrow, a downslope-warmed airmass will advect into at
least western Oklahoma. Southerly winds will also increase in
response to Lee cyclogenesis. These features, combined with
abundant insolation, will result in a much warmer day than today.
Highs from the low 50s (east) to low 60s deg f (west) are
By late Wednesday into early Thursday, a cold front will move
through the area as a shortwave trough digs into the Midwest. The
airmass behind this front is not much colder, but a 5 to 8 deg f
decrease in temperatures is expected for Thursday afternoon. No
precipitation is expected with this front.
For Friday and Saturday, mid-level heights will rise and
southerly winds will return. Warmer temperatures are expected with
highs in the 50s and 60s deg f. Southerly winds will increase
once again on Saturday in response to Lee cyclogenesis.
For Sunday, a quick-moving shortwave trough will dig into the
Southern Plains. Scattered showers are possible as this shortwave
trough and attendant cold front/wind shift move through the area.
Increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures
No cool-down is expected for Monday with a downslope-warmed
airmass advecting into the area behind this wave. Temperatures may
even be warmer than Sunday with more insolation and the
aforementioned downslope-warmed airmass.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 36 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 39 24 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 39 25 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 43 26 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 36 23 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 41 23 53 29 / 0 0 0 0