Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KOUN 221928 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .DISCUSSION... A cold front is expected to move across the region Wednesday afternoon and night bringing colder and drier air to the area. Rain and some thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday night into Thursday. In terms of the upper pattern, there continues to be differences between models on the evolution of the upper system. GFS and NAM continue to show the system remaining as a progressive, open wave that moves across the region whereas the ECMWF and Canadian continue to show a closed low developing in NM or west TX which moves across the southern Plains, although the 12Z run does seem to move the upper low faster than the previous run. The different scenarios will have an impact on precipitation chances and could have an affect on temperatures and cloud cover. The GFS/NAM solution would mean that precipitation chances end Thursday night with the fa remaining dry through the weekend. The ECMWF/Canadian scenario would extend precipitation chances across at least portions of the fa into Saturday. With the model differences, will continue with PoPs into the weekend but keep them low Friday and Saturday due to the lack of confidence in what will happen. Hopefully, models will begin to converge on a scenario over the next few runs. Right now, have precipitation at just rain with a chance of storms Thursday. However, depending on how quickly the cold air moves into the region and the timing of the bulk of the precip shifting south, some light winter precipitation may be possible on the N/NW fringe of the precipitation Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 49 76 47 52 / 0 0 50 70 Hobart OK 48 78 45 53 / 0 0 30 70 Wichita Falls TX 51 82 53 58 / 0 0 30 70 Gage OK 43 73 38 49 / 0 0 30 50 Ponca City OK 47 73 43 51 / 0 0 40 70 Durant OK 48 77 52 62 / 0 0 20 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None.