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FXUS64 KOUN 221928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
228 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

A cold front is expected to move across the region Wednesday 
afternoon and night bringing colder and drier air to the area. Rain 
and some thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday night into 
Thursday. In terms of the upper pattern, there continues to be 
differences between models on the evolution of the upper system. GFS 
and NAM continue to show the system remaining as a progressive, open 
wave that moves across the region whereas the ECMWF and Canadian 
continue to show a closed low developing in NM or west TX which 
moves across the southern Plains, although the 12Z run does seem to 
move the upper low faster than the previous run. The different 
scenarios will have an impact on precipitation chances and could 
have an affect on temperatures and cloud cover. The GFS/NAM solution 
would mean that precipitation chances end Thursday night with the fa 
remaining dry through the weekend. The ECMWF/Canadian scenario would 
extend precipitation chances across at least portions of the fa into 
Saturday. With the model differences, will continue with PoPs into 
the weekend but keep them low Friday and Saturday due to the lack of 
confidence in what will happen. Hopefully, models will begin to 
converge on a scenario over the next few runs. Right now, have 
precipitation at just rain with a chance of storms Thursday. 
However, depending on how quickly the cold air moves into the region 
and the timing of the bulk of the precip shifting south, some light 
winter precipitation may be possible on the N/NW fringe of the 
precipitation Thursday.


Oklahoma City OK  49  76  47  52 /   0   0  50  70 
Hobart OK         48  78  45  53 /   0   0  30  70 
Wichita Falls TX  51  82  53  58 /   0   0  30  70 
Gage OK           43  73  38  49 /   0   0  30  50 
Ponca City OK     47  73  43  51 /   0   0  40  70 
Durant OK         48  77  52  62 /   0   0  20  70 



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