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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
507 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Discussion...



&&

Aviation...
for the 12z tafs:

VFR conditions will continue. Periods of mid-high clouds (>9,000
ft) will be seen through the end of the taf period. Winds will
trend from southwesterly to west/northwesterly through the day,
with some sites experiencing gusts to around 20 knots from late
morning through at least mid-afternoon.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 331 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019/

Discussion...
weak surface trough will pass over the region today, allowing a
wind shift from southwest to northwest. With downsloping airmass
spreading over the region, temperatures are expected to be much
warmer than those seen yesterday. With height rises and return to
southerly flow for Tuesday, temperatures are anticipated to be
similar if not a few degrees warmer. These height rises will
occur ahead of ejecting cutoff low from the baja region. With the
increase in southerly flow, along with mid-upper level moisture
associated with mentioned system, sufficient moisture and lift are
expected to result in scattered to numerous showers the latter
half of Wednesday into early Thursday. A few embedded storms are
possible as well, but absence of instability should preclude any
strong storms. As this trough passes, a cold front will spread
from north to south on Thursday.

GFS still the quickest in bringing larger upper low into the
plains, phasing it with the strong, high amplitude trough moving
over the southern Canadian territories and northern plains. Ecm
and Gem still keep these features separated, thus slower with
upper low eastward progression. With this anticipated slower
progression of the second system, lift above the frontal surface
as upper trough approaches will yield another round of
precipitation late Thursday through Friday. Some of this
precipitation may mix with or change over to snow across northern
and western Oklahoma Thursday night into early Friday. With
marginal temperatures and progressive nature of lift, it does not
appear that there will be any appreciable accumulations of snow,
if it does in fact happen. Drying trend and warming trend expected
to commence on Saturday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 70 41 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 72 39 71 52 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 72 43 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 72 37 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 68 38 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 68 45 72 51 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.

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