Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KOUN 111712 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 .AVIATION... Southerly winds and VFR conditions should continue through most of the TAF period. Northwest Oklahoma may see some lower ceilings move in early Thursday morning. North central Oklahoma will have to be monitored for a possibility of low level wind shear toward morning as well. Day && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ AVIATION... VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will increase to around 10 to 15 kt from the south late after 15Z. A few mid to high clouds will increase by mid day. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... A slight warming trend will continue across the area through Friday with temperatures expected to be near or above normal for this time of year. Models show a shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains Thursday. Clouds will increase with this system but no precipitation is expected. Models then show a cold front moving across the area Friday night with a colder airmass moving into the region towards Sunday/Monday. This colder airmass is associated with an upper system that is expected to move across the Plains at that time. However, there are some differences as to the path of this system. The path of the system and timing of cold air will have an impact on precipitation. There continues to be uncertainty and model differences as to if/where and what type of precipitation will occur. The 00Z GFS has a more northern track which would limit the extent of area of precipitation in the fa with the highest potential in northern portions of the fa closer to the upper system. The ECMWF and Canadian are further south than the GFS and has at least low chances for precipitation across a larger portion of the fa. As previously mentioned, the timing of the colder airmass will have an impact on precipitation type with some form of winter precipitation possible in parts of the fa. The highest potential for winter precipitation will be across northern OK. Right now, just have a mention of snow in the forecast but other winter precipitation types might also be possible depending on the timing and path of the previously mentioned features. Overall, this is a low confidence forecast for Sunday into Monday. Hopefully, the models will start to be more consistent with themselves and each other over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 52 36 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 53 35 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 55 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 54 39 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 53 37 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 33 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None.