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000 
FXUS64 KOUN 111712
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.AVIATION...
Southerly winds and VFR conditions should continue through most of
the TAF period. Northwest Oklahoma may see some lower ceilings
move in early Thursday morning. North central Oklahoma will have
to be monitored for a possibility of low level wind shear toward
morning as well.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ 

AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will increase to
around 10 to 15 kt from the south late after 15Z. A few mid to
high clouds will increase by mid day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
A slight warming trend will continue across the area through Friday 
with temperatures expected to be near or above normal for this time 
of year. Models show a shortwave moving across the central/southern 
Plains Thursday. Clouds will increase with this system but no 
precipitation is expected.

Models then show a cold front moving across the area Friday night 
with a colder airmass moving into the region towards Sunday/Monday. 
This colder airmass is associated with an upper system that is 
expected to move across the Plains at that time. However, there are 
some differences as to the path of this system. The path of the 
system and timing of cold air will have an impact on precipitation. 
There continues to be uncertainty and model differences as to 
if/where and what type of precipitation will occur. The 00Z GFS has 
a more northern track which would limit the extent of area of 
precipitation in the fa with the highest potential in northern 
portions of the fa closer to the upper system. The ECMWF and 
Canadian are further south than the GFS and has at least low chances 
for precipitation across a larger portion of the fa. As previously 
mentioned, the timing of the colder airmass will have an impact on 
precipitation type with some form of winter precipitation possible 
in parts of the fa. The highest potential for winter precipitation 
will be across northern OK. Right now, just have a mention of snow 
in the forecast but other winter precipitation types might also be 
possible depending on the timing and path of the previously 
mentioned features.

Overall, this is a low confidence forecast for Sunday into Monday. 
Hopefully, the models will start to be more consistent with 
themselves and each other over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  36  54  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         53  35  55  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  55  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           54  39  57  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     53  37  55  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         53  33  55  38 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.

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