Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 koun 171805 
afdoun

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Update...
only minor updates to the forecast package this morning.

&&

Discussion...
forecast is on track with clouds moving out of the area and gust
north Post-frontal winds. Did do some minor adjustments to the
forecast and republished to remove the mention of the early
clouds.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with variable
mid and high clouds. Gusty north winds this afternoon will become
light and become more southwesterly with time overnight before
increase somewhat from the southwest after sunrise.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 524 am CST sun Nov 17 2019/

Discussion...

Aviation...
for the 12z tafs:

VFR conditions continue and minimal changes were needed for this
new set of tafs. A cold front/wind shift will progress across the
area and Post-frontal gusts up to 20-25 knots will be possible
through the day at most sites. Midlevel (~10-15 kft) clouds will
progress through and at least one more period of cirrus will
follow later today/tonight. Winds will decrease this evening and
gradually veer around to southwesterly.

Previous discussion... /issued 303 am CST sun Nov 17 2019/

Discussion...
progressive trough will continue to pass over and just north of
Oklahoma today. Expanding baroclinic Leaf noted on infrared satellite and
associated lift could yield some light rain/sprinkles across
northern Oklahoma this morning. However, main impact of this trough
will be a weak frontal boundary. This front currently moving through
northwest parts of Oklahoma. This northerly wind shift will spread
over Oklahoma and western North Texas today. Winds will be fairly
gusty for a few hours after frontal passage across all but southeast
Oklahoma, but do not expect any drastic changes in temperature.
Winds expected to weaken late this afternoon and become southwest
and west tonight, before another shift to northwest tomorrow with
another weak frontal intrusion. Strong southerly winds will return
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, yielding a fairly substantial
increase in lower level moisture. Southern stream upper low
currently off the coast of Baja California still expected to get
kicked eastward over the Southern Plains Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Enough moisture is expected to be available for scattered
showers and perhaps some isolated weak storms.

Models are very similar through early Thursday with combination of
lead southern stream system mentioned above and a northern stream
trough progressing over the northern plains. Similarly, they bring a
strong cold front into the region late Wednesday into Thursday.
Thereafter, models differ on timing/impacts of main upper level
system that will yield increased precipitation chances north of this
frontal boundary. GFS still characteristically faster with opening
up and bringing upper low eastward, but ecm and Gem have sped it up
a bit from last couple of runs. Perhaps we will arrive at a decent
model consensus in the next couple of days. Marginal boundary layer
cold air in both models not conducive to much in the way of wintry
mix or change over to frozen/freezing precipitation late in the
week. However, the track of the GFS mid level system and associated
cold core would likely yield higher chances for accumulating snow
across northern Oklahoma on Friday. The slower ecm does not have any
precipitation over northern parts of Oklahoma until later on Friday
into early Saturday. It is warmer, but another favorable track could
yield at least a chance for a wintry mix across far northern
Oklahoma. Given trends and continued spread in model solutions, pops
were maintained into Saturday, with mention of wintry precipitation
confined mainly to northern parts of Oklahoma.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 38 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 37 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 38 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 37 71 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 36 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 38 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations