Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 koun 190500 
afdoun

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Discussion...
the 06z aviation discussion follows....

&&

Aviation...
light winds will turn southerly tonight/tomorrow as low pressure
develops to the west. Speeds will generally increase through the
day and remain fairly steady into the night tomorrow night. As
the above-ground winds increase further late tomorrow night, low-
level wind shear will also increase. Otherwise, no significant
weather is expected through the period.

Cms
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 312 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/

Discussion...

Currently a surface boundary is positioned across northwest
Oklahoma, which is causing a reorientation of the winds from the
southwest to the northwest. Temperatures have increased in
northwest Oklahoma into the mid to upper 70s with the downsloping
flow due to the wind shift. Aside from this wind shift, the
pleasant weather is expected to continue into Tuesday with mostly
clear skies in the region and highs in the lower 70s. This
pleasant weather will be short lived, however.

A cutoff low currently off the Baja Coast will get kicked out and
ejected over the region on Wednesday. Enhanced mid level moisture
advection into the area coupled with the upper level divergence
from the ejected cutoff low will provide enough support to produce
widespread precipitation in the region Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday. Following the exit of the cutoff low, another low will
enter the area Thursday night. A surface cold front will develop
and move through Thursday afternoon, and an another round of
precipitation will occur with the approaching upper level cyclone
and surface front. Precip amounts will be lower with the second
system due to the lack of moisture advection after the cutoff low
moves through. Temperatures and forecast soundings indicate a
chance for snow in northern and western parts of Oklahoma behind
the cold front, however the lack of near surface moisture should
limit the ability for the snow to reach the surface and
accumulate.

After the second cyclone exits the area, dry conditions are
expected for the weekend. Temperatures will also begin to slowly
rebound and increase into the beginning of next week.

Zwink

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 41 70 52 67 / 0 0 0 70
Hobart OK 39 71 51 69 / 0 0 0 70
Wichita Falls Texas 43 74 54 71 / 0 0 0 70
gage OK 37 71 49 71 / 0 0 0 60
Ponca City OK 38 68 48 67 / 0 0 0 60
Durant OK 43 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 30

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations