Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS66 KOTX 142136 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 236 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A brief period of quiet weather returns Monday and Tuesday. A wetter weather pattern is forecast for later in the work week with rain, mountain snow, and breezy surface winds. Temperatures for the weekend will be slightly cooler and below seasonal average. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday: High pressure has built across the Inland Northwest, bringing dry weather and mostly clear skies across the region. Patchy fog formed in the northern valleys down to the Spokane-CdA area this morning, but rapidly eroded with daytime heating. Temperatures across the region are warming into 50s and 60s as of this writing. With a day of drying, fog is generally expected to be less widespread tonight compared to last night, remaining primarily in the northern river valleys. The upper ridge axis moves eastward tonight and early Tuesday, with increasing cloudiness ahead of the next frontal system. Hi-resolution models are hinting at enough warm advection / isentropic lift to bring a quick round of pre- frontal rain on Tuesday. Confidence isn't high, but we've introduced a slight chance of rain across the forecast during the day Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be a bit warmer than today with high temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Dang Wednesday through Monday: A Gulf of Alaska Low will push waves of moisture through the Pacific Northwest through this period. Models continue to slow the arrival of the the pattern and pushing back on the expected impacts and the Basins daytime winds. The Cascades are expected to feel the brunt of the moisture. The higher elevations of 5000ft and abv can expect rain/snow through the period as the snow levels will seesaw up and down between day and night. By Saturday cooler air will begin to push into the region and begin a drop in the snow levels. Portions of the Northern Cascades could receive several inches of snow over the 72 hour period. The prolonged rain could bring rises to local area creeks and streams and impact some recent burn scars along the Cascades. The Northern Mountains and Idaho Panhandle can expect a lesser amount of moisture than the Cascades but still have the rain/snow cycle. While the amount of moisture for the region begins to taper off, the cooler air drops the snow levels to around 3000 ft. This could bring portions of the Columbia Basin into a rain/snow mix. The Columbia Basin buoyed by the rain shadow effect will be impacted by weak showers. The main for the Columbia Basin will be the winds for the end of the week. Models have been delaying their onset and trending down on the strength of the winds during the daytime. Wednesday does not look like This could lead to the Columbia Basin seeing gusts into the upper 20s and low 30s Mph. Temperatures for the period will become milder and near the normals for this time year. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Cooler air moves into the region by the weekend and brings overnight lows back into the low 30s. Weekend highs will be dipping into the 40s. The mountain showers and cooler temps will continue for the start of next week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Mainly VFR conditions and light winds the next 24 hours. Any fog development is currently expected to remain away from terminals tonight into Tues morning. Dang && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 34 59 38 61 40 54 / 0 20 20 20 60 20 Coeur d'Alene 33 59 38 62 41 51 / 0 20 20 10 60 40 Pullman 35 62 41 64 40 54 / 0 20 20 10 60 20 Lewiston 41 69 48 71 47 61 / 0 10 20 0 60 30 Colville 29 60 32 61 35 56 / 0 20 10 20 70 40 Sandpoint 33 57 38 60 41 50 / 0 20 20 20 70 70 Kellogg 36 59 43 62 43 49 / 0 0 20 10 70 70 Moses Lake 35 61 38 61 39 61 / 0 20 10 30 50 10 Wenatchee 41 58 43 58 43 58 / 0 20 20 60 70 40 Omak 38 57 39 57 40 56 / 0 20 10 60 80 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None.