Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS66 KOTX 142136
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief period of quiet weather returns Monday and Tuesday. A wetter 
weather pattern is forecast for later in the work week with rain, 
mountain snow, and breezy surface winds. Temperatures for the 
weekend will be slightly cooler and below seasonal average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: High pressure has built across the 
Inland Northwest, bringing dry weather and mostly clear skies 
across the region. Patchy fog formed in the northern valleys down 
to the Spokane-CdA area this morning, but rapidly eroded with 
daytime heating. Temperatures across the region are warming into 
50s and 60s as of this writing.

With a day of drying, fog is generally expected to be less 
widespread tonight compared to last night, remaining primarily in 
the northern river valleys. The upper ridge axis moves eastward 
tonight and early Tuesday, with increasing cloudiness ahead of the
next frontal system. Hi-resolution models are hinting at enough 
warm advection / isentropic lift to bring a quick round of pre-
frontal rain on Tuesday. Confidence isn't high, but we've 
introduced a slight chance of rain across the forecast during the 
day Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be a bit warmer than 
today with high temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s. 
Dang

Wednesday through Monday: A Gulf of Alaska Low will push waves of 
moisture through the Pacific Northwest through this period. 
Models continue to slow the arrival of the the pattern and pushing
back on the expected impacts and the Basins daytime winds. The 
Cascades are expected to feel the brunt of the moisture. The 
higher elevations of 5000ft and abv can expect rain/snow through 
the period as the snow levels will seesaw up and down between day 
and night. By Saturday cooler air will begin to push into the 
region and begin a drop in the snow levels. Portions of the 
Northern Cascades could receive several inches of snow over the 72
hour period. The prolonged rain could bring rises to local area 
creeks and streams and impact some recent burn scars along the 
Cascades. The Northern Mountains and Idaho Panhandle can expect a 
lesser amount of moisture than the Cascades but still have the 
rain/snow cycle. While the amount of moisture for the region 
begins to taper off, the cooler air drops the snow levels to 
around 3000 ft. This could bring portions of the Columbia Basin 
into a rain/snow mix. The Columbia Basin buoyed by the rain shadow
effect will be impacted by weak showers. The main for the 
Columbia Basin will be the winds for the end of the week. Models 
have been delaying their onset and trending down on the strength 
of the winds during the daytime. Wednesday does not look like This
could lead to the Columbia Basin seeing gusts into the upper 20s 
and low 30s Mph. 

Temperatures for the period will become milder and near the 
normals for this time year. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s. 
Lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Cooler air moves into 
the region by the weekend and brings overnight lows back into the 
low 30s. Weekend highs will be dipping into the 40s. The mountain
showers and cooler temps will continue for the start of next week.
/JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mainly VFR conditions and light winds the next 24 hours.
Any fog development is currently expected to remain away from 
terminals tonight into Tues morning. 
Dang


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  59  38  61  40  54 /   0  20  20  20  60  20 
Coeur d'Alene  33  59  38  62  41  51 /   0  20  20  10  60  40 
Pullman        35  62  41  64  40  54 /   0  20  20  10  60  20 
Lewiston       41  69  48  71  47  61 /   0  10  20   0  60  30 
Colville       29  60  32  61  35  56 /   0  20  10  20  70  40 
Sandpoint      33  57  38  60  41  50 /   0  20  20  20  70  70 
Kellogg        36  59  43  62  43  49 /   0   0  20  10  70  70 
Moses Lake     35  61  38  61  39  61 /   0  20  10  30  50  10 
Wenatchee      41  58  43  58  43  58 /   0  20  20  60  70  40 
Omak           38  57  39  57  40  56 /   0  20  10  60  80  30 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations