Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 170246
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1046 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
the forecast remains on track. A cold front south of the region
will continue to push away from the area overnight. As high
pressure builds in from the north, skies will clear and winds
will become more northerly.
Lows tonight will fall into the upper 40s and 50s. Lows in NYC
will remain in the upper 50s and to right around 60 degrees. A
mav/met/ecs blend was used for temperatures.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
high pressure will remain north of the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. A northeasterly flow will develop making it feel
fall-like as dew points fall into the 40s and temperatures only
reach the 70s. Expect sunny skies on Tuesday, with mostly clear
conditions Tuesday night, however late Tuesday night, we could
start to see an increase in cloud cover, especially across the
far eastern portion of the County Warning Area.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
ocean beaches on Tuesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
psuedo-Omega blocked pattern mid to late week with the region
on the NE side of eastern US upper ridging in between deep
western US troughing and western Atlantic troughing amplifying
as it interacts with Hurricane Humberto. This eventually breaks
down this weekend, with the western Atlantic trough and Humberto
gradually shearing NE, and western US trough and eastern US
ridging gradually sliding east.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure builds down from Quebec
midweek, with sprawling high pressure establishing itself east
of the Mississippi River for late week into the start of the
Potential for stratus development Tuesday night and more so
sct-bkn strato-cu on Wednesday, with onshore flow moistening
low-levels and diurnal instability with shortwave moving through
pooling and trapping this moisture under a strong subsidence
inversion. Temps likely to be slightly below seasonable Wed (mid
60s to around 70) with fresh Canadian maritime airmass and
cloud cover on Wed. Thereafter, tranquil and moderating temps to
near seasonable Thu and then above normal Fri (mid to upper
70s), as center of high pressure gradually slides to the south
of the region. Developing return flow this weekend ahead of
approaching shortwave/cold front should have temps rising to
well above seasonable levels with increasing humidity (lower to
mid 80s). Next chance for measurable precip may come early next
week with approach of next trough (originally the mid week
western US trough), but quite a bit of model spread on the
amplitude of this energy at this time.
NHC track forecasts for Humberto have been consistent in slowly
tracking it east and then northeast through the next 5 days,
well out to sea. The likely indirect impacts will be dangerous
rip/longshore currents and rough surf at Atlantic Ocean beaches
starting midweek as long period swells begin to affect the area,
and wind waves begin to increase in long fetch and duration NE
flow. Potential for high surf and associated beach flooding
erosion issues late week into early weekend as energetic E/se
swells arrive from Humberto. Refer to the National Hurricane
Center for official forecast information on Humberto.
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure builds in from the north overnight through
A light northerly flow, around 5 kt, continues overnight, with
the outlying terminals light and variable. Winds increase to
around 10 kt Tuesday morning , after 12z, and become northeast,
020 to 040. Gusts to around 17 kt are likely at kewr and kjfk,
with more occasional gusts at klga and kisp. Winds and gusts
diminish around sunset, 23z Tuesday.
Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
Tuesday night through Saturday...generally VFR. There is a low
chance for some MVFR stratus Wednesday morning at the coastal
winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
Tuesday night. Occasional gusts near 20 kt are expected late
tonight, mainly for the ocean. Winds diminish through the day on
Tuesday. Seas will increase to 4 ft on the ocean Tuesday night.
A few 5 ft waves can not be ruled out late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning.
Winds Wednesday through Saturday will generally remain below sca,
but potential for some marginal Small Craft Advisory gusts Wed into Thu across ocean
eastern waters with tightened pressure gradient between Humberto and
high pressure building SW from New England.
Potential for Small Craft Advisory seas as early as Wednesday with combined long
period swells from Humberto and easterly wind waves. Seas may build
to 8 to 10 ft by late week/early weekend as most energetic swells
no significant hydrologic impacts through the end of the week.
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
short term...British Columbia