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fxus61 kokx 231134 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
734 am EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Synopsis...
a cold front continues to move to the south of Long Island this
morning. High pressure builds to the north this afternoon through
the weekend, and across the Canadian Maritimes early next week.
Low pressure may pass south and east of the local area during
the middle of next week, followed by a slow moving cold front
late in the week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
scattered showers currently streaming across the lower Hudson
Valley and southern Connecticut will gradually sink south and
east through the morning as the cold front moves offshore and
upper level support gradually wanes. Increased pops across much
of the area through at least mid morning as the front so far has
been slower to progress than initially thought. Still thinking
that the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore by noon or
shortly thereafter. Otherwise the forecast remains on track,
with lower dewpoint air beginning to advect into the interior
behind the front.

The next forecast challenge today will revolve around the degree of
cloud cover. The proximity of the upper jet will likely be enough to
support abundant middle and high level cloud cover well into the
afternoon. This is supported by BUFKIT time heights of the NAM,
hrrr, rap, and GFS indicating a high amount of moisture from around
15 kft to 30 kft. This moisture does not diminish until this evening
and the best chance for seeing significant clearing would be across
the northwest interior late in the day. Have gone with mostly cloudy
conditions through the day for much of the area.

High temperatures will be in the 70s today, much cooler than recent
days.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean
beaches.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
the core of the strongest winds aloft push offshore this evening.
The bulk of the middle and upper level cloud cover should follow
with clearing skies. High pressure also builds closer to the
northeast as the upper trough settles over New England. With mostly
clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass, low temperatures should
fall well into the 50s inland and near 60 along the coast. The NYC
Metro may only fall into the middle 60s.

Saturday will feature high pressure and temperatures a few degrees
below normal for this time of year. Highs will reach the middle and
upper 70s. There will likely be just a few to scattered fair weather
clouds as the atmosphere overall is dry through the afternoon.

There is a low risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
high pressure builds north of the region Saturday night, then
continues to move east into the Canadian Maritimes through the day
on Monday. This will create an environment favorable for the
development of stratus and drizzle/light rain as easterly flow sets
up over the region. Several models indicate the potential for light
quantitative precipitation forecast during the Sunday-Sunday night timeframe, with the best chances
from NYC on east.

As the high moves offshore on Monday, an area of low pressure
developing along the southeast coast will begin to lift to the
north, while at the same time a trough will begin digging across the
northern plains. Significant differences remain with the timing and
amplitude of the upper trough as well as with the strength, timing,
and track of the low as it lifts north. While the model consensus
continues to track the coastal low south and east of the local area,
it will have to be monitored for tropical development through the
weekend.

A cold front then approaches the area late in the period, although
the timing of this feature remains uncertain due to the
aforementioned differences aloft.

With the potential for plenty of cloud cover, temperatures on Sunday
and Monday will be several degrees below normal, with highs
generally remaining in the mid 70s. Temperatures then gradually
moderate through the mid week period.

&&

Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
a cold front settles just south of the region as high pressure
builds to the north.

Patchy morning stratus may result in brief MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR with lingering scattered light showers expected this
morning, tapering off and passing south by afternoon.

Mid and high clouds are then expected this afternoon. Clear at
night.

Northerly winds around 10 kt will lighten somewhat as the morning
progresses. These winds may back to the west/northwest for a short time in the
afternoon, but then shift back to the north/NE by evening around 10 kt.

..NY Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: north winds lighten, and may back to the west for
a few hours by early afternoon. Very low chance for winds to back to
the SW briefly.

The afternoon kjfk haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Klga taf comments: north winds lighten, and may back to the
west/northwest for a few hours by early afternoon.

The afternoon klga haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kewr taf comments: north winds lighten, and may back to the
west/northwest for a few hours by early afternoon.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: north winds lighten, and may back to the
northwest for a few hours by early afternoon.

Khpn taf comments: north winds lighten, and may back to the
northwest for a few hours by early afternoon.

Kisp taf comments: north winds lighten, and may back to the west for
a few hours by early afternoon. Very low chance for winds to back to
the SW briefly.

Outlook for 12z Saturday through Tuesday...
Saturday-Saturday night...VFR.
Sunday...VFR, except MVFR possible in a slight chance of light
rain in the afternoon. Along the coast, NE flow 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt possible.
Monday-Tuesday...mainly VFR, except MVFR possible with a
chance of light rain Monday night and Tuesday. Along the coast,
NE flow 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt at times.

&&

Marine...
a cold front continues to move to the south of the waters this
morning. Winds are expected to be light and offshore along with
ocean seas 3-4 ft. There may be a slight increase in winds on the
ocean as the pressure gradient steepens late tonight into Saturday
morning. These winds should weaken in the afternoon with sub-Small Craft Advisory
conditions prevailing.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop on the ocean Sunday as
strengthening easterly flow will result in gusts to 25 kt and
building seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continue into the day on
Monday. While winds are then expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory levels, seas
will remain elevated through the period as an area of low pressure
off the southeast coast tracks south and east of the waters through
the middle of next week.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.

&&

Equipment...
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Feb/ds
near term...Feb/ds
short term...ds
long term...Feb

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