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000 
FXUS61 KOKX 221945
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through the region tonight followed by high 
pressure building in from the southwest. A cold front pushes 
through the region tonight followed by high pressure building 
in from the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
An upper-level trough and associated occluded surface low pressure 
system will move its way northeastward into Ontario through tonight. 
A cold front will push in from the west further increasing moisture 
ahead of it bringing a period of widespread rainfall tonight. The 
steadiest rain will occur between 00z and 06z, tapering off from 
west to east after 06z and clearing eastern Long Island and 
southeastern Connecticut by early Wednesday morning. Rainfall 
amounts will be on average between 0.50 and 0.75 inches, with the 
higher amounts to the north and west of NYC.

Low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, in the upper 
40s across the interior and in the 50s elsewhere. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front pushes through by early morning with dry air 
filtering in quickly behind resulting in a mostly sunny day. It will 
also be breezy as high pressure builds in from the southwest and low 
pressure departs. With ample sunshine, temperatures will warm a few 
degrees above normal, into the low to mid 60s.

Mainly clear sky expected for Wednesday night, with winds 
diminishing and temperatures cooling off into the upper 30s across 
the interior and the Pine Barrens of Long Island. Elsewhere 
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s and around 50 across 
the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s on Thursday with high 
pressure centered southeast of the forecast area. The NBM was used 
for temperatures. A clipper type system is then possible for late 
Friday into Saturday. The ECMWF remains consistent with this 
feature. A blend of the model data was used for precipitation 
probabilities, which were capped at chance. The GFS would produce 
less rain. The NBM was used for high temperatures Friday and 
Saturday, with the CONSMOS used at night. A chance of rain returns 
Sunday and Monday due to a southern stream upper low and Gulf of 
Mexico moisture. The GFS is now spinning up a surface low south of 
the area on Sunday, producing a wind driven rain. The forecast has 
been trended in this direction with support from the 12Z ECMWF. A 
large upper trough then approaches for the beginning of next week. 
Chances for rain have been included in the forecast with the 
possibility of falling heights. The NBM with minor adjustments was 
used for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure system and a cold front approach this evening and 
move across the region overnight. 

MVFR/IFR conditions have overspread the region and will remain 
in place through much of the TAF period. We will generally see 
ceiling heights between 500-1500 ft for much of the evening 
with widespread IFR or lower ceilings developing.  

Light drizzle and showers have begun to develop at all terminals
and will become more widespread during the afternoon into the
evening. A more steady rain is likely overnight into early
Wednesday.


NE-N winds averaging around 5-10kt. Winds veer more ENE late 
afternoon and evening. Southerly winds prior to the frontal
passage will be possible in the late evening. Winds become
northerly behind the cold front between 06-12z Wednesday and
westerly by Wednesday afternoon with gusts near 20kt possible.
Conditions start to improve after 09z as the front crosses the 
region and drier air moves into the area. 


     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: 
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for ceilings and
visibility through the evening.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for ceilings and
visibility through the evening.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for ceilings and
visibility through the evening.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for ceilings and 
visibility through the evening.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for ceilings and
visibility through the evening.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for ceilings and
visibility through the evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday-Thursday...Becoming VFR. Chc W gusts 20-25kt on 
Weds.
.Friday-Saturday...Chc MVFR and rain Fri PM into SAT AM.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters through 
Wednesday evening. Wind gusts on the ocean will increase late 
tonight and could reach 25 kt into Wednesday morning as a cold front 
pushes through the waters. Ocean seas will then remain elevated 
through Wednesday, mainly due to easterly swells. Seas will begin to 
subside Wednesday afternoon with winds falling below 25 kts.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory 
levels Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure may develop south of 
the waters on Sunday, producing at least advisory level winds across 
the entire area. If some of the modeling is correct, gales with seas 
building up to 12 ft will be possible on the ocean. For now, WNA was 
capped at 8 ft on the ocean. Conditions gradually improve behind the 
system on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 inches are expected through 
tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels during this evenings high tide along the south 
shore back bays will likely fall short of minor coastal flood 
benchmarks. No statements have been issued at this time based on
the latest forecast water levels.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the
air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB/
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DBR/JP 

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