Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 190243
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1043 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the
weekend. A cold front will approach on Monday, and pass slowly
east on Tuesday. A warm front may approach on Wednesday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
the shortwave rotating through the west side of an upper trough
east of the region was well south, and clouds have cleared the
area. A few remained to the east and south of the Twin Forks.
Meanwhile riding was building to the north with a slight height
rise across the region. The center of sfc high over New
England will settle south across the area by morning.
Winds have decoupled across the interior zones, and with nearly
clear to clear conditions, temperatures have fallen off more
quickly and lower than forecast. As a result, lowered overnight
temperatures across the lower Hudson Valley and southern
Connecticut. Some short term guidance was indicating local
inland areas falling into the upper 30s, and while did not go
that low, would not be too surprised if overnight lows in a
couple of locations did go that low.
NE winds will diminish as the night progresses. These diminish
winds along with clear skies will allow temperatures to fall
as sfc heat radiates back to space.
Some river fog is possible across the interior as these cold
and calm conditions are realized.
Short term /Thursday night through 6 PM Thursday/...
strong subsidence settles in across the area Thursday and
Thursday night as ridge builds behind trough/developing closed
low over the Atlantic to our east. Clear skies expected.
The center of high pressure appears to settle south and west of
the region by Thursday night. Initial NE winds will lighten,
and seabreezes are possible during the afternoon hours near the
coast. Winds then become more westerly at night around the high
located to our southwest.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday,
then fall into the 40s and 50s Thursday night per MOS blend and
There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on
Thursday due to long period swells from distant Hurricane
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
high pressure will dominate into the weekend, with a warming
trend, then increasing humidity going into Sunday as a return
SW-S flow develops, which should result in patchy inland fog Sat
night into early Sunday morning. A back door cold front
dropping into New England looks like it will remain to our
northeast. High temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Fri should
be slightly warmer on Sat/Sunday, with lower/mid 80s expected.
Nighttime lows with light winds/mostly clear skies.Dry air mass
should range from the 50s to lower 60s Fri night/Sat night, then
in the 60s throughout Sunday night.
A high rip current risk should continue at the ocean beaches
into Fri evening, and a high surf advy may be needed for Fri as
well. Surf heights on Fri should approach 7-8 ft as swells build
to at least 7 ft and increase in period to at least 13 sec.
A slow moving cold front will approach on Mon, with chance for
showers northwest of NYC Mon afternoon, then throughout Mon night into
Tue night. There are some indications that a wave of low
pressure could develop along the front and enhance rainfall on
Tue as well as bring chance of tstms, but with the usual
inherent uncertainty on chance of occurrence, timing, and
location at such long lead times.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure remains over the region.
Winds becoming north/NE 5 to 10 kt for Thursday morning push. Winds
veer east/southeast late afternoon, then light S/SW for evening push.
Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday...
Thursday night through Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR am. Chance MVFR in -shra and SW gusts 20kt PM.
no changes to winds and seas at this time.
An ocean Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM Friday. Rough
building ocean seas of 5-7 ft should continue through then, and
possibly into Fri night, as long period swells from distant
Hurricane Humberto begin to arrive from the S attm, then from
the southeast on Fri.
In addition, wind gusts could be around 25 kt into the early
overnight hours on the ocean waters.
Minimal Small Craft Advisory criteria may also be possible on Mon in S-SW flow
ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind gusts close to 25
kt on the ocean and South Shore bays, and ocean seas close to 5
no significant hydrologic impacts through the weekend.
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
New York...high rip current risk through Friday evening for nyz075-080-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for anz350-353-355.
short term...precipitable water