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fxus61 kokx 190948 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
548 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will dominate through the weekend. A cold front
will approach on Monday, and pass slowly east on Tuesday. A warm
front may lift north of the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
upper level ridge will continue to build into the region today with
surface high pressure settling across the area. This will
result in a dry day with little in the way of clouds due to
strong subsidence. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday as winds turn more southerly.

There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on
Thursday due to long period swells from distant Hurricane Humberto.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
high pressure remains settled to the south and west Thursday night
and Friday. Thursday nights low temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer than previous nights with a westerly wind component. Lows
will be in the 40s across the interior and in the 50s along the
coast.

This pattern will bring a gradual warming trend starting on Friday.
Under a mostly sunny sky, temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to
around 80 degrees, a few degrees above normal.

There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on
Friday due to long period swells from distant Hurricane Humberto.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the beginning of this period will continue with generally tranquil
conditions as we will be situated under the building ridge of an
Omega block over the Continental U.S. Into the western Atlantic.

The building ridge will not only provide dry conditions through the
weekend, but also above normal temperatures into the beginning of
next week as 1000-500 mb thickness of around 570 dam noted in the
GFS through this time period. The warmest day appears to be Sunday
as T temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 80s away from
the coast, with cooler conditions along the coast as sea breezes
likely develop. However, the period from Saturday through Monday
should see highs in the upper 70s and 80s region-wide.

Conditions will become increasingly humid into Monday as well. In
fact, there may be enough low level moisture for the development of
fog across portions of northeast New Jersey, the lower Hudson
Valley, southern Connecticut and eastern Long Island Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday night. This
will bring a chance for showers to the area. Instability does not
look too impressive, so did not add thunder. There is still some
uncertainty with timing of the frontal passage.

Although temperatures will be cooler behind the front, they will
still be above normal on Tuesday. Wednesday will be cooler still,
but a warm front will lift north into Thursday, bringing warmer
conditions once again. However, right now, temperatures will remain
in the 70s to around 80 region-wide.

&&

Aviation /10z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure remains over the region.

VFR.

Winds becoming north/NE 5 to 10 kt for the morning push. Winds veer
east/southeast late afternoon, then light S/SW for evening push.

... Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: timing of wind shift to the south this
afternoon may vary by 1-2 hours.

The afternoon kjfk haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Klga taf comments: low to medium confidence of a late day
seabreeze.

The afternoon klga haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kewr taf comments: timing of wind shift to the S/southeast this
afternoon may vary by 1-2 hours.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: low to medium confidence of a late day seabreeze.

Khpn taf comments: low chance of a late day seabreeze.

Kisp taf comments: timing of wind shift to the south this
afternoon may vary by 1-2 hours.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday...
Thursday night through Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR am. Chance MVFR in -shra and SW gusts 20kt PM.

&&

Marine...
Small Craft Advisory remains on the ocean waters until 8 PM Friday. Ocean seas of 5-7
feet will build and continue through Friday night due to long period
swells from distant Hurricane Humberto.

Winds will remain below 25 kt through through Tuesday. Waves on the
ocean will be 5 to 7 ft on Friday night, diminishing to less than 5
ft by late Saturday morning. Waves will remain below 5 ft through
Sunday. 5 ft waves are possible on the ocean Sunday night, but more
likely late Monday morning into Monday afternoon as a southerly flow
increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Waves diminish to less
than 5 ft on Tuesday

&&

Hydrology...
no significant hydrologic impacts through the weekend.

&&

Equipment...
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...high rip current risk through Friday evening for nyz075-080-
081-178-179.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Friday
for anz350-353-355.

&&

$$

Synopsis...cb/jp
near term...cumulonimbus
short term...cumulonimbus
long term...jp

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