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fxus61 kokx 200815 cca 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service New York New York
415 am EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will dominate through the weekend. A cold front
approaches on Monday and moves through Monday night. High pressure
follows for the midweek period.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
Omega blocking pattern in place over the conus, with our area under
deep layered riding will mean persistence forecasting and thus dry
and warmer conditions through today. Temperatures at the top of the
mixed layer today will be 15 to 17 c, translating to temperatures
win the upper 70s to lower 80s, about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than
yesterday.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean
beaches today due to long period swells from distant Post
tropical cyclone Humberto.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
overnight lows will also be seasonably warm, ranging from the
lower 50s inland, to the lower 60s in the New York City Metro
area. Although light, winds will be a bit stronger overnight,
and thus outlying areas will not cool as much as the previous
night. However, if winds end up being lighter than forecast,
then low temperatures will likely be a few degrees lower than
currently forecast, depending on cloud coverage, which should be
low given subsidence from high pressure over the region.

Omega block continues for Saturday as the ridge axis moves
overhead. Continued dry and even warmer conditions are forecast
as highs rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler conditions
are expected along the coast.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean
beaches on Saturday as long period swells lessen from distant
Post tropical cyclone Humberto.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
Pacific jet energy will provide the upstream kicker for a more
progressive flow this period as an anomalous upper ridge retreats
off the East Coast to start the period. An amplifying shortwave
trough across the Great Lakes will then send a cold front through
the area Monday night. High pressure will follow for the mid week
period.

There is a chance of showers Monday afternoon/night with the
cold front. While there is strengthening of the vertical wind
profile as heights fall with the incoming upper trough,
instability is weak at best. This will have to be watched in
subsequent model runs see if the lift can steepen the mid level
lapse rates a bit more for stronger convection.

Unseasonably warm temperatures Sunday into Monday will feature
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and lows in the 60s Monday
morning. Following the cold frontal passage Monday night,
temperatures will return to near normal levels.



&&

Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure remains across the region through the taf period.
VFR conditions expected. Winds will be under 10 kts for much of the
taf period.

Winds will go from variable direction to more westerly early today
and then more SW for coastal terminals late morning into the
afternoon, increasing to near 10 kts. Winds return to more west to
northwest flow tonight and decrease under 10 kts.




... Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: amendments possible for wind direction this
afternoon. Timing of more southerly wind could be off by 1-3 hours.

The afternoon kjfk haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Klga taf comments: amendments possible for wind direction this
afternoon. Timing of more southerly wind could be off by 1-3 hours.

The afternoon klga haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kewr taf comments: amendments possible for wind direction this
afternoon. Timing of more southwesterly wind could be off by 1-3
hours.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: amendments possible for wind direction this
afternoon. Timing of more westerly wind could be off by 1-3 hours.
Wind could become SW late today.

Khpn taf comments: amendments possible for wind direction this
afternoon. Timing of more westerly wind could be off by 1-3 hours.
Wind could become SW late today.

Kisp taf comments: amendments possible for wind direction this
afternoon. Timing of more southwesterly wind could be off by 1-3
hours.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday...
late tonight through Sunday...VFR.
Monday...mainly VFR. Chance MVFR in -shra afternoon into night and
SW gusts 20kt day into early evening.
Tuesday...mainly VFR.

&&

Marine...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue for the ocean zones as 5 to 6 ft waves
from long period easterly swells continue to be generated from
distant Post tropical cyclone Humberto. These conditions are
expected to slowly diminish tonight as the cyclone weakens and
moves farther away from the area. Waves fall below 5 ft by
Saturday morning. Winds will remain below 25 kt thanks to lack
of strong pressure gradient.

Winds increase and seas build Sunday through Monday ahead of a
approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop on
the ocean waters Sunday night and continue into Monday night
with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft. Winds and seas
diminish late Monday night into Tuesday following the passage
of the cold front.

&&

Hydrology...
no significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of
next week.

&&

Equipment...
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...high rip current risk through this evening for nyz075-080-081-
178-179.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT
Saturday for anz350-353-355.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jp/dw
near term...jp
short term...jp
long term...dw

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