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000 
FXUS61 KOKX 191654
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather today and tonight. 
Tropical storm Nestor is then forecast to track well south of the 
region Sunday night into Monday morning. A weak high pressure ridge 
otherwise remains over us Monday into Tuesday. A cold front then 
follows for Tuesday night with a return to high pressure through 
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast remains on track.

A high pressure ridge will shift through the region today. Sunny 
conditions and light winds along with high temperatures at or 
slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the ridge to our east, cirrus begins to stream in from the 
west. There's uncertainty regarding how quickly it shifts in and the 
implications on potential frost formation. Have gone with areas of 
frost for most of the northernmost portions of the forecast area as 
well as the Pine Barrens Region, but will hold off on issuing a 
frost advisory until there is more confidence regarding the cloud 
and temperature forecast.

Clouds continue to thicken on Sunday in advance of Tropical Storm 
Nestor. The center of this storm is still forecast to pass well to 
our south Sunday night, however associated moisture does stream 
northward towards us. Have increased rain chances from the previous 
forecast based on model trends, but leaned away from the NAM as it 
was the northernmost and wettest outlier. For the latest official 
track and intensity forecast, refer to the latest advisories from 
NHC. Expecting a light to moderate rainfall from this, mainly from 
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure returns for Monday with dry weather, then a cold 
front approaches for Tuesday. This will bring increasing chances of 
rainfall as the day progress, then the highest overall chance of 
rain occurs at night with the frontal passage. A weak area of low 
pressure may develop along the front, which could help to enhance 
the precipitation as the system becomes negatively tilted. However 
there are timing differences in when this system becomes negatively 
tilted, and thus uncertainty in where and when any heavier 
precipitation falls. 

High pressure builds in and dominates the weather pattern with 
dry weather to close the week. Temperatures will be a slightly 
above normal for Thursday and Friday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions as high pressure settles over the area terminals
today then moves offshore tonight. 

Light NW flow gradually backs to the W and then SW into the 
afternoon. Speeds will remain under 10 kt. Winds become light 
and variable after 00z Sunday. Light E-NE flow should develop 
after 12z Sunday.

Overall, VFR through much of the TAF period with a chance of 
MVFR development Sunday morning. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 16Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...MVFR or lower possible Sunday afternoon into 
Sunday Night. 
.Tuesday...Showers likely, especially late day and at night 
with MVFR or lower conditions. 
.Wednesday...Becoming VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure with a weak pressure gradient will sustain relatively 
tranquil conditions over all waters today and tonight, as well as 
most of Sunday. Low pressure/remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor 
emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday and is still expected 
to pass well SE of the waters Sunday night into Monday. There is 
uncertainty regarding how closely it approaches and therefore how 
strong winds eventually get during the Sunday night-Monday period. 
Will go with marginal SCA conds at least on the ocean waters 
starting Sunday afternoon, but given the aforementioned uncertainty, 
will hold off on issuing a SCA as this would be beginning late in 
the 3rd period of the forecast.

A lingering easterly swell may then maintain 5ft+ seas through 
Tuesday on the ocean. Winds otherwise diminish somewhat during this 
period. A cold front then moves through Tuesday night with westerly 
winds close to SCA conds during Wednesday mainly on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected with the rainfall Sunday into 
Sunday night as rain totals are expected to be around a quarter of 
an inch or less. Rain is anticipated for Tuesday into Tuesday night, 
but rain amounts and potential impacts are uncertain at this
time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the
air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JC

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