Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kohx 121125 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
525 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

for 12z aviation discussion.



Snow/mixed precip moving through the mid state a bit faster than
previous forecast, with the stronger radar reflectivities mostly
east of I-65 as of 1 am. Most reports received so far across the
area show mainly a dusting up to a half inch, and in the northwest
counties/Kentucky border counties a half inch to around an inch or so.
Most of the main roads look to be snow free, but with very cold
air moving in behind the front, slick spots will be around
especially on bridges and overpasses. A few photos show secondary
roads with a light coating of snow as well. Strong wind speeds of
10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will continue through the
morning, so that may help to dry out the roads a bit this morning
before the sun arrives from west to east to finish drying the
roads. Unfortunately, the winds are also bringing in more cold and
dry air, so temperatures will struggle to reach freezing or even
hit 30 in many areas, so there will not be much relief in the way
of warmer temps to help melt the snow today. Again hopefully the
strong winds help dry out most of the main roads and most of the
slick spots on secondary roads except for the northern plateau
where the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect early this
morning. Snow began in that area around 11 PM, so expecting around
an inch of snow in that area with some spots even getting a bit
more. With that snow, travel may be slightly more impacted than
the rest of the mid state. Also, with the cold air continuing to
move in, as well as the strong winds, wind chills will be in the
single digits to low teens across the area this morning, so be
sure to bundle up if headed out this morning.

Cold temperatures will continue later tonight, with low temps in
the teens. By Wednesday, northwest flow and even hints of
shortwave ridging will help US warm up a bit with highs in the
afternoon in the low to mid 40s. Another trough will swing
southward from the Midwest Thursday, but a bit of ridging ahead of
the trough will allow the mid state to get closer to 50 for highs
Thursday afternoon. Not much moisture with this trough so we look
to remain dry. The trough will form a closed low aloft and drift
south and east of the area before moving northeastward off the
coast, so still not expecting many impacts for the mid state into
the weekend. Temps will recover further Saturday with highs in the
low to mid 50s, and mid to upper 50s Sunday. Another trough moves
east from the plains Monday and Tuesday next week, but also looks
dry with latest model solutions so left out mention of precip
during the entire extended forecast.


12z taf discussion.

Most of the precipitation has moved out of middle Tennessee. Left -sn and
IFR in at csv through 13z...although snow will most likely end
before that. Otherwise high pressure moving in and clouds
decreasing. It is already VFR at ckv. It is MVFR for bna and mqy
and expect this to become VFR by 14z. Csv should become VFR around
21z. Gusty north 20-25 kt winds today. Winds will die off in the
afternoon but still be sustained around 15 kts and dropping to
under 10 kts after sunset.


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Clay-


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations