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FXUS64 KOHX 141128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
528 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019




A few echoes are still showing up on radar, mainly east of I-65,
as one shortwave exits the region. A second shortwave will come
through later this morning, so we'll keep some POP's in the
forecast after 12Z. Then we'll enter a brief rain-free period
before the next active weather system brings more significant
weather to the mid state. A warm front attached to a low center 
coming out of Texas will develop across the mid state on Sunday. 
The low will race across the Arklatex Monday morning, then find 
itself tracking across northwest Middle Tennessee Monday 
afternoon. Both the GFS & Euro are in good agreement with each 
other, and also have maintained reliable consistency over the past
24 hrs. Given the close proximity of the low and the strength of 
the 850 mb winds ahead of the cold front, believe some 
thunderstorms are possible ahead and along the surface front 
Monday and Monday evening. Fropa will take place between 00Z and 
06Z Tuesday, and the surface low passes by close enough that we'll
get some wrap-around moisture overnight, with perhaps some snow 
on the back end of this system, especially across northwest Middle
Tennessee where the cold air will be deepest. Moisture will exit 
the region quickly on Tuesday, and the remainder of the week 
appears to be rain-free with high pressure influencing our weather
from Tuesday onward. As for temperatures, there will be a 
dramatic drop following Monday evening's cold front. Overnight 
lows Tuesday night and again Wednesday night are going to be well 
into the 20's, and possibly even a few teens. We probably won't 
start to see any return flow until Thursday. At this time, we're 
keeping an eye on the severe storm potential for Monday. The SPC 
has much of Middle Tennessee under a severe storm risk on the day 
4 outlook (soon to be day 3). Total QPF from Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday morning is quite uniform across the region,
ranging from about 1 1/4" near Waynesboro to around 1 3/4" over
the Upper Plateau. Otherwise, the potential for hazardous weather
across the next 7 days is quite low.



Drizzle/light rain will be possible this morning, but should move
out by the late morning. Cigs should improve to high MVFR and even
VFR for the afternoon hours. Clouds look to return this evening to
MVFR and possibly IFR, with LIFR cigs possible at KCSV. Winds will
be westerly around 5 to 10 knots during the day, becoming light
and variable this evening.




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