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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
132 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 240 am CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

An upper ridge continued to build across the central Continental U.S.
Overnight, as a trough dug into the Pacific northwest. High pressure
will keep the region hot and dry today. High temperatures will climb
through the upper 80s and low 90s across the forecast area.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s will make it feel more like the mid to
upper 90s.

High pressure will gradually shift east of the area by this evening,
leaving US in southwesterly flow aloft. A weak disturbance will
ripple along the back edge of the ridge, potentially bringing a
slight chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to far
northeast Nebraska tonight. Otherwise, the vast majority of the
forecast area should remain dry through Tuesday. Low temperatures
tonight will stay well above normal, in the lower 70s. Highs on
Tuesday will once again climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold
front Tuesday, with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible.

The previously mentioned Pacific northwest shortwave trough will
eject northeast towards the northern plains Tuesday, pushing the
surface cold front through the region Tuesday night. Showers and
storms will be possible along and ahead of this boundary Tuesday
night through Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms capable of
strong winds and hail could be possible Tuesday evening and early
Tuesday night as the low level jet picks up. This boundary is
forecast to stall across the region Wednesday night, bringing
additional precipitation chances to the forecast area. Highs on
Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than the previous days, but
still above normal, ranging from the low 80s in northeast Nebraska
to the upper 80s near the Kansas/MO borders.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 240 am CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

More active weather looks possible as we move into the extended
period. Another trough will dig into the West Coast by the middle of
the week, eventually reaching the nation's midsection by the
weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue Thursday and
Friday, with highs in the mid 80s. Showers and storms will continue
to be possible Thursday, along the previously stalled frontal
boundary, left over from Tuesday night. The approaching low pressure
system will finally push the boundary out of the region Thursday
night. However additional precipitation chances will be possible
Thursday night through Friday within the moist southerly flow ahead
of this disturbance. A cold front will eventually push across the
forecast area Friday night/Saturday, as the upper low and surface
reflection eventually make their way northeast across the Canadian
border. Temperatures should finally cool off close to normal behind
the front late next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through 18z Tuesday. The
primary aviation concern for the region over the next 24-30 hours
will be increasing southerly winds and low level wind shear. The main period for
low level wind shear (from ~180 degrees at 40 kt) will be from 02z to 15z Tuesday,
with impacts expected at klnk and kofk. Once low level wind shear subsides,
surface winds will increase, with 25 to 35 kt gusts possible
between 15z Tuesday and 01z Wednesday. A couple isolated
thunderstorms are possible in northeastern Nebraska between 06z
and 15z Tuesday, but the likelihood of impacts at kofk is low.


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