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FXUS63 KOAX 230512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Winds will diminish by 6-7 pm, then become light and variable
through evening, eventually becoming south through time. There is
a fast moving moving weak impulse aloft moving through the
northern Rockies which could bring some sprinkles to the area by
late evening and overnight, but no mention of measurable
precipitation at this time. 

The area will be on the southern side of an area of low pressure.
This will result in winds becoming west northwest and increasing
again to the 15-30 mph range. Could also be isolated showers 
near the NE/SD border, but again measurable precip chances look
low. Highs in the lower 50s far northern area, to the mid 60s far
southern areas. 

Wednesday night through Sunday
This should be a very quiet weather period. Cool temps on Thursday
behind the front with highs 45 to 50. Warming into the mid 50s on
Friday, and into the 60s on Saturday ahead of another cold front
coming in by Saturday night. The ECMWF is much more aggressive 
with a weather system Friday night into Saturday, but even the 12z
model keeps precipitation south of the forecast area, thus will
keep it out of our area at this time. Cooler again Sunday behind
the front with highs from 47 to 55. 

Monday and Tuesday
Another trough and reinforcing cold front will impact the region
late in the forecast period. This will bring increasing chances
for precipitation, although the GFS and Canadian models generally
remain dry, but the EC remains wet. Thus, forecaster confidence by
day 7 is quite low. With colder temperatures forecast, we do have
a rain/snow mix in the forecast. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds on
Wednesday will become more northerly and could have occasional
gusts to 25 knots, especially at Norfolk. Winds should die down
after sunset Wednesday. 



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