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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
528 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

..updated aviation forecast discussion...

Discussion...
issued at 154 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Through Tuesday night

Weak upper level disturbance combined with a surface trough
moving through the area has created a few sprinkles along/east of
the MO river this afternoon, and that will continue to affect
western Iowa through about 6 PM. Otherwise, it's another warm day
with afternoon highs in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west.

Otherwise, decreasing northwesterly winds tonight with generally
clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Another
beautiful day Tuesday, with light and variable winds to start, but
switching to the southeast by the end of the day. Highs again in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. And still a very mild night Tuesday
night with dry conditions and lows only in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

Wednesday through Thursday

Starting off dry Wednesday morning, but rain chances dramatically
increase Wednesday afternoon/evening as the next trough moves out
of the 4-corners region. This induces Lee cyclogenesis over
southeast co, which eventually moves through southeast NE and
southwest Iowa. Models are actually in very good agreement with the
surface low track. Fortunately temps warm significantly ahead of
the low, highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s again, so this will
mostly be rain, and generous rain at that, which will end a fairly
dry period that we've experienced for the last month. There could
also be thunder along/south of i80, and then the rain could
change to snow in northeast NE by midnight through early Thursday
morning. And fortunately, the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast will be transitioning
to the northeast at that time. Still, looking for up to an inch of
snow in northeast NE, generally northwest of a line from Columbus
to Sioux City, with rainfall up to an inch south of there. There
could be a few lingering snow showers north of Omaha Thursday
morning, but any accumulating snow would be over by then certainly
blustery late Wednesday night through Thursday with northwest
winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Friday

Models do indicate that the southern stream of the trough moves
through the Southern Plains Friday. The GFS is a little farther
south than the ECMWF, which could bring isolated showers to
southeast NE and southwest IA, but the confidence is low.

Saturday through Monday

The remainder of the forecast should be dry and pretty decent,
with nearly or slightly above normal temperatures in the 40s and
50s. Not bad for almost of the end of November. It could be, and
has been much worse.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with a few
mid/high clouds passing overhead. Otherwise, surface winds will
remain around 10-15kts out of the northwest with a gradual
decrease in speeds overnight. Light surface winds are expected on
Tuesday as a ridge of surface high pressure moves overhead.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

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