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fxus63 koax 210818 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
318 am CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 317 am CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Focus for this forecast cycle is anticipated heavy rainfall event
today leading to significant accumulations over portions of the County Warning Area.
A check of regional mosaic was showing a line of thunderstorm
activity was increasing in areal coverage an intensity roughly from
southeast to central NE. All this in part to strong moisture
transport in combination with isentropic upglide atop a cold front
stretching across southern NE then along the Iowa/MO border. In
addition to this, Stout elevated instability was present with MUCAPE
ranging from 4000-5000 j/kg. In addition to this, convective Bow was
beginning to merge with northern flank of aforementioned line of
storms. The environment is moisture rich as well. Evening sounding
from koax indicated precipitable water of 1.48", roughly 145% of normal. Cams
generally agree Panhandle storms will continue to merge early this
morning with thunderstorms to the east and form a line of
convection oriented northwest-southeast across NE.

Precipitation will continue to intensify this morning in part to
lift via vort Max/mid layer warm air advection/increasing
differential divergence. Latest rap is advertising brunt of heavy
precip will shift from the central to southern County Warning Area this
afternoon and tonight where Max Omega will be displaced.

As of now, it appears accumulations ranging anywhere from 1-2" will
be found across east-central NE and extreme southwest Iowa by events
end Thursday morning. Meanwhile, southeast NE could see amounts
approaching 1.5" during this time.

Small precip chances will continue heading into this weekend in
part to series of vort maximums move across the Central Plains.

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 317 am CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Passage of embedded shortwaves flowing through broad troughing aver
the northern Continental U.S. Will keep precip chances alive through the
majority of the extended periods.

Max temperatures will be quite comfortable in the extended periods
with low/mid 80s on Sunday then around 80 on Monday. A bit cooler
then Tuesday and Wednesday with highs the 70s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1114 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

A gradual uptick in thunderstorm development is anticipated
overnight into Wednesday morning, resulting in periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as variably gusty winds. The
showers and thunderstorms should end initially at kofk around
midday and koma and klnk by late afternoon or early evening. Light
and variable winds will switch to northeast overnight at around 10
kt with the passage of a cold front through the area.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...

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