Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 koax 221116
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
616 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
..updated aviation forecast discussion...
issued at 332 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
A surface low located over Minnesota and Wisconsin is creating a
strong pressure gradient over the forecast area resulting in
strong northwest winds. This morning into the evening, winds will
be in the 20-25 mph range and gusting up 40 mph. The strongest
winds are expected in northeast Nebraska and western Iowa. Winds
will begin to diminish as the surface low moves farther northeast
into Canada and the pressure gradient across the area lessens.
Skies are forecast to be clear today and plentiful sunshine will
result in high temperatures in the upper 50s with some areas
getting into the 60s.
Tonight through Thursday night...
winds will begin to die down this evening, but the relief is only
brief as a quick clipper system ahead of an upper level trough
will lead to wind gusts greater than 30 mph Wednesday afternoon.
There is a possibility of precipitation in far northeast Nebraska
with this system. Forecast soundings show that the airmass will
be quite dry so any precipitation would be light. Thursday the
upper level low will continue to dig south across the Central
Plains. Cold air advection across the northern plains will lead to
cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday.
Friday through Monday...
temperatures this weekend should rebound into the 60s as
southerly winds will advect in warmer temperatures. The weekend
will remain dry until Sunday when there is the possibility of
another system affecting the area. Uncertainty is high with this
system as there is significant model differences on the timing,
placement, and the strength.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 613 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
Skies cleared out overnight and should remain mostly clear through
the taf period. Surface winds will be the primary issue with gusty
northwest winds to 35kts or more continue through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish through the late afternoon and become light and
variable this evening.
NE...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for nez011-012-015>018-
Iowa...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for iaz043-055-056-069.