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fxus63 koax 222319 
afdoax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
619 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Short term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 252 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Main forecast problem in the short term is the chance of
thunderstorms and possible severe weather on Tuesday.

Upper level shortwave trough over the northern plains will move
east of the area tonight. This will allow for skies to clear with
high pressure dominating the area on Monday. Temperatures will be
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the region.

Return flow of low level moisture starts to return Monday night.
Some thunderstorms may develop over southeast Nebraska early
morning at the nose of a 25 to 30 kt low level jet. Upper
shortwave rotating around upper low over Canada into the northern
and Central Plains on Tuesday afternoon will drive a cold front
southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show ml convective available potential energy in east
central Nebraska to be over 2000 j/kg with nearly 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear. Thus, severe weather is certainly possible on Tuesday
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front.

Front clears through the area on Wednesday with a large high
pressure moving in.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 252 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

After a dry Wednesday night and a good part of the day on
Thursday, low pressure develops over southwest Nebraska. Another
cold front moves across the area on Thursday night and Friday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible late Thursday
night into Saturday afternoon. There may be some clearing Sunday,
but that is uncertain as upper low builds out west with shortwave
troughs moving out of the upper low out west into the central and
northern plains.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 618 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Surface
high pressure will build through the region tonight with light
north or northwest winds switching to light south on Monday
morning. Outside of some passing mid-level clouds (fl080), skies
will remain mostly clear.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

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