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fxus65 kmso 151015 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
415 am MDT sun Sep 15 2019

Discussion...high pressure will move east of The Divide today,
placing central Idaho and western Montana under warm southwesterly
flow. As such, today will be another day of above normal
temperatures. Monday will also be a warm and dry day, but
temperatures will run a few degrees cooler across the region.

A well defined cold front will slowly work its way across the
northern rockies late Monday night. Some thunderstorms are
possible as the frontal boundary pushes across SW Montana on
Tuesday. Lightning and heavy rain seem like the most reasonable
threats, given the meager amounts of instability typically
present at this time of year.

Forecast models continue to struggle with the details of what
will happen over the rest of this week. However, there are some
broad scale features that the models do agree upon. First, all the
models keep some form of cooler, low pressure troughing in place
across the northern rockies throughout the week. Thus, confidence
in much cooler conditions remains high. It also seems reasonable
to have higher chances for precipitation throughout the week,
given the propensity for frequent showery weather under these
deeper, elongated troughing patterns. Be that as it may, models
are still holding the details regarding timing of when the
heaviest precipitation may occur very close to the Vest, so to
speak. Outside of the cold front passage Monday night into
Tuesday, forecast confidence remains quite low as we await
reasonable run-to-run and model-to-model consistency.


Aviation...another day of VFR conditions is expected today. After
15/2100z, terminals may begin to pick up a blustery west-SW wind,
lasting through 16/0100z. Kbtm and ksmn will be the terminals most
likely to see gusty winds during this time period.


Mso watches/warnings/advisories...

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