Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmrx 160712
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
312 am EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
Short term...(today and tonight)...
mid level ridge and the remnants of Barry will continue to be the
main players of the weather for the next several days. Early this
morning some patchy fog is expected once again in the typical
locations in valley's and near rivers. Once the sun rises we should
see another day similar to what we experienced yesterday.
Temperatures are expected to rise a few degrees above normal and
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to form once
again. Have continued with the highest precipitation chances along
the areas of higher terrain in the afternoon, but can't rule out
storms forming along left over boundaries from storms in the area
yesterday. But will keep only low end precipitation chances in the
forecast. Winds will be slightly breezier today, mostly along the
Cumberland Plateau down towards Chattanooga as the remnants of
Barry move a bit closer to the area helping to tighten up the
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tomorrow
shortly after sunrise as the remnants of Barry finally begin to move
eastward and over the forecast area.
Long term (wednesday through monday)...
remnants of Barry has merged with an upper trough. For Wednesday and
Thursday, this trough will move into the southern Appalachians. Main
low level forcing will be terrain and outflow boundaries. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms will accompany this wave with the
greatest coverage over the terrain features. Cape values will be
marginal between 1000-1500 j/kg, but high moisture content with pws
of 2.1 inches. Heavy rains will be the main concern. Storm motion
will be progressive northeast at 25kts. However, any training will
be a problem for isolated flash flood issues.
For Friday, drier air will move into the southern Appalachians as an
upper ridge builds into the area, but still expect scattered storms
to develop along the terrain features.
For Saturday and Sunday, upper ridge begins to weaken with pws and
instability increasing. Main forcing will remain the terrain
features with scattered mainly diurnal storms developing each day.
Instability and pws of 1.7 to 1.9 inches will produce typical heavy
rains and strong/gusty wind.
For Monday, a developing upper trough over the northeast/mid-
Atlantic states with a frontal boundary approaching late. End
result, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 93 74 86 73 / 10 20 60 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 91 73 86 71 / 10 10 60 40
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 91 73 85 72 / 10 20 60 40
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 90 68 86 69 / 20 10 60 50