Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmrx 151344
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
844 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Precipitation is still ongoing across northeast Georgia into
southwest North Carolina this morning. Expect rain to continue to
move off to the east as the low continues to pull away off-shore.
Cloud coverage will also decrease through the day today, except
along the mountains closer to the moisture plume. Overall forecast
is still on track from this morning.
12z tafs are fairly similar to the previous set. Mid/upper level
moisture continues to stream overhead the taf sites. This leads to
broken/overcast ceilings around and above 10kft through much of Friday. Ceilings
should begin to scatter out by late afternoon and into evening
hours before clearing out Friday night. Winds during the period
will remain out of the north 5-10 knots.
/issued 336 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019/
short term...(today and tonight)...
Water vapor imagery depicts a digging mid/upper level trough
across the Tennessee Valley with a plume of mid/upper level
moisture from the northern gom northward into the mid-Atlantic
region. Laps soundings show a dry airmass generally below 700mb
across much of the area with dewpoint depressions as high as
20-30. As a result of this dry subcloud layer, precipitation has
been limited and this will continue to be the case through much
of the early morning hours. Only have slight chance pops across
southwestern North Carolina through 12z Friday. The mid/upper
level trough will continue to dig across the southeast inducing
surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast Friday. Expect Friday
and Friday night will be dry with a gradual decrease in cloud
cover as much drier air moves in from the west. Temperatures on
Friday will be in the low to mid 50s area wide with lows Friday
night in the mid 20s to low 30s which is still below normal.
Long term...(saturday through friday)...
Long term...(saturday through friday)
by Saturday morning a closed upper low will be located off the
southeast U.S. Coast leaving the forecast area under shortwave
ridging. Light northerly surface winds will generally continue to
bring below average temperatures through the weekend. However, the
weekend will be precipitation free.
The focus shifts to the digging trough over the plains on Sunday
that translates eastward and across our forecast area on Monday.
Models agree that it will be dry but the strength of the shortwave
should bring some noticeably cooler temperatures by Monday afternoon
as compared to Sunday especially across northeast Tennessee and southwest
Broad troughing across the eastern U.S. Persists into Tuesday. This
system could produce some light precipitation with a few hours of
snow mainly for areas north of Interstate 40 early Tuesday morning
and perhaps late Tuesday night. No accumulations are expected.
Confidence is rather low for any precipitation to develop, though.
By mid-week, shortwave ridging and dry conditions will prevail. By
Thursday Max temperatures will warm into the 60s ahead of the next
front that will move across the area on Friday. Increasing rain
chances will occur late Thursday night into the first half of Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 54 33 57 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 52 31 54 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 52 29 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 50 28 54 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 0