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fxus63 kmpx 212339 aaa 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
639 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 235 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019

A welcome return to more seasonable Summer weather today as
Canadian high pressure continues to slide into the region. Still
can't rule out some isolated showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder later this afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave
passes overhead. The overall thunder threat looks low but decided
to keep a mention of it in the forecast with Li values just barely
negative across central Minnesota. Most locations are expected to
remain dry.

Seasonably cool temperatures are expected today and tomorrow with
highs generally in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to
upper 50s. Skies will clear out and winds will diminish overnight
with high pressure overhead so some areas of fog are expected by
tomorrow morning, but drier dewpoints advecting in overnight
should keep it limited to low-lying areas. Expect plenty of
sunshine and light winds on Monday as the high becomes centered
over the upper Midwest.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 235 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019

Much more tranquil weather is expected throughout the upcoming
week with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected
throughout.

The period will commence with surface high pressure centered over
the central conus, with more of a north-south orientation than
east-west, allowing it to encompass all of the upper Mississippi
River valley Tuesday through Wednesday. In addition, a ridge axis
emanating from the southwestern Continental U.S. Will extend north and
northeast, slowly increasing 500 mb heights across MN/WI. This will
make for plenty of clear skies along with gradually increasing
temperatures to the mid-80s by midweek.

The ridge axis will break down going through Thursday while a
compact upper level low coming from the Pacific northwest quickly shifts
east along the international border during the first half of this
week. This low will be in conjunction with a weak low pressure
center moving toward Hudson Bay with its associated fronts sagging
south across the northern-tier Continental U.S.. the warm front of the system
will snap through the area Thursday night into Friday, bringing
isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Then, with the weather forecast office mpx coverage area warm-sectored on Friday
followed by the cold frontal passage Friday night, additional
showers and thunderstorms can be expected but still too much
uncertainty to increase pops into the likely category so have
capped wording in the chance range. At this point, weak high
pressure looks to re-establish itself for next weekend,
potentially making for a dry but warm weekend with highs returning
to the upper 80s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 638 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019

VFR conditions tonight with light winds.

Kmsp...no concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Tue...VFR. Wind northwest 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

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