Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmpx 220352 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1052 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019
Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019
Forecast concern near is wind with the deepening surface low lifting
over east central Minnesota late this afternoon and eventually into
northern WI by 12z Tue.
Updated earlier for expansion of High Wind Warning over southwest Minnesota
and expansion of Wind Advisory east for Tuesday. Stronger northeast
to north wind moving into west central Minnesota at this time. We do
expect them to increase through 00z with gusts to around 50kts
possible. This works southeast into south central Minnesota mainly this
evening as the surface low lifts slowly northeast. Strongest winds
should end by 12z Tue into south central Minnesota with Wind Advisory
criteria expected to continue after through across most of the County Warning Area.
Rain should pivot northwest and the eventually move back
south/southeast later tonight in the wraparound on the backside of
the deep surface low. And additional quarter to one half inch
accumulation expected through Tuesday afternoon. Convective threat
continues into early evening with pocket MUCAPE of 500 j/kg rotating
across the southeast portion of the area, along with steep mid level
lapse rates as well.
Weak ridging builds in briefly in the wake of the surface low for
Tuesday night. The next short wave/clipper system moves rapidly
across South Dakota late Tuesday night providing a small chance of
light snow by 12z Wed to the southwest.
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019
For the extended, continued with the blended guidance. The weather
pattern has several smaller scale features, and confidence in the
timing and placement of those features is too low to make
adjustments. Overall expect cool conditions with chances for rain
across southern Minnesota Wednesday morning, and again small chances
over the weekend.
On Wednesday morning a shortwave trough will skirt along the
Missouri River valley and lead to clouds and precipitation across
southern Minnesota. Thermal profiles support a few snow flakes, but
no accumulation is expected. Cold air will follow this system and
spread across the upper Midwest for Thursday and Friday.
A thermal ridge will move across the region Friday night into
Saturday. This system should bring warmer temperatures for Saturday
with highs near 60. Another cold front will quickly follow for the
weekend. There is not much moisture with this system, but do have a
small chance for pops. This front will stall out to the southeast,
and could be the Breeding ground for another stronger storm system
early next week. It is too early to say where that will track, but
something to keep an eye on.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019
MVFR/IFR with strong winds and scattered showers into Tuesday.
Northwest winds are expected to increase overnight across eastern
Minnesota and western WI as the surface low pressure moves across the
region while diminishing a bit across western and southern Minnesota. Thermal
profiles will be warm enough for precipitation to remain as rain.
Kmsp...MVFR ceilings with gusty winds and scattered showers
through much of Tuesday. Light and variable winds with the nearby
low pressure center will become northwest around 06z and increase
through the night. Peak gusts of 35-40 kts expected on Tuesday,
but should decrease around sunset.
/Outlook for kmsp/
Wed...chc MVFR. Slight chc -shra. Wind north-northwest at 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind northwest at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.
WI...Wind Advisory from 7 am to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for wiz023>026-028.
Minnesota...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Tuesday for mnz041-042-049-058-059-
Wind Advisory from 4 am to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for mnz043-044-047-
High Wind Warning until 4 am CDT Tuesday for mnz047-048-054>057-
High Wind Warning until 7 am CDT Tuesday for mnz074-075-082-083-
Wind Advisory from 7 am to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for mnz074-075-082-