Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmpx 222036
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
336 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
The back edge of the extensive cloud cover from the departing storm
system north of the Great Lakes, was across west central, southwest
and south central Minnesota this afternoon. Temperatures have
recovered nicely where the sunshine was plentiful today. There
remains some light rain or drizzle across central/east central
Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin, but this area will
likely be dry by the late afternoon as most of the deeper moisture
moves off to the northeast. The main weather element this afternoon
was the strong/gusty winds. Winds were near 50 mph across
west/southwest Minnesota with a few gusts still near 40 mph across
west central Wisconsin today. These winds will decrease this evening
as the storm system continues to move away from the region. All but
west central Wisconsin, and parts of east central Minnesota will see
mostly cloudy skies tonight, with clear skies in the southwest.
However, this will be short-lived as the next storm system quickly
moves southeast over the plains of South Dakota and Nebraska. The
system in question for tomorrow was forming/developing across
eastern Montana this afternoon. A nice jet core and isentropic lift
ahead of the surface low over Alberta Canada, was beginning to
produces some light rain across Montana. This system will only brush
our region with some very light snow, or light rain along the Iowa
border starting late tonight, and into Wednesday morning. Most of
the precipitation will end by noon Wednesday, but the cloud cover
will likely hold on. The best moisture advection/isentropic lift and
jet energy will remain across Iowa so I wouldn't be surprised to see
little or nothing for snowfall. However, thickness values and
surface temperatures are cold enough to have the precipitation start
out as snow, and quickly change over to light rain. If this system
was a bit stronger, the snow maybe last longer with some minor
accumulations along the Iowa border. However, at this time based on
the current trends, this system will continue to weaken as it moves
across Iowa Wednesday morning.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
The long term period looks to be mostly dry, starting off with a
couple days of sunshine. Temperatures will be below normal Thursday,
warming into the 50s Friday and Saturday, before a cold front moves
through the local area Saturday night, brining a surge of cooler
air across the region.
By Thursday morning, a positively tilted longwave trough will be
centered from near The Four Corners region through the Dakotas and
northern Minnesota. An upper low will develop at the south end of
the trough, and slowly work across northern Texas and Oklahoma, and
eventually swing northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a progressive shortwave trough and associated surface
cyclone will move east across southern Canada, brining warm
southwesterly flow to our area late Friday through Saturday. The
cold front with this system will sweep through our area Saturday
night, bringing cooler temperatures into the region for Sunday and
beyond. Saturday should be our one warmer than normal day, with
highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. Winds of 10-20 miles per hour with
gusts of 25 miles per hour will make it feel cooler though. With the
aforementioned system to our south hogging the moisture feed from
the Gulf, expect the cold front will pass through mostly dry across
our local area.
Another strong longwave trough will sink in across the northern
Continental U.S. Through Monday night, with colder than normal temperatures
expected to continue.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
Very little change from previous tafs issued at 12z with MVFR cigs
through the afternoon/evening across most of central/east central
Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin. Portions of west
central/southwest, and south central Minnesota will have cigs
rising to VFR but MVFR cigs are possibly once again after 12z
Wednesday. Light rain/drizzle will continue for most of east
central Minnesota/west central Wisconsin this afternoon.
West/northwest winds will continue strong at 20-25 kts sustained,
with gusts in the 30s through the mid/late afternoon. These winds
will diminish this evening and back to the west overnight. By
Wednesday morning, another front will pass through allowing winds
to shift back to the northwest.
MVFR cigs /aob 1.7 kft/ will continue through the
afternoon/evening along with -ra/-dz at times. Cigs will rise to
VFR late tonight, and possibly dropping back to MVFR Wednesday
afternoon with -ra.
/Outlook for kmsp/
Thu...VFR. Wind northwest at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind south-southwest at 10-15g20 kts.
Minnesota...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for mnz041>043-047>051-