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FXUS63 KMPX 132113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

A band of heavy snow showers moved across the region and produced a 
half to one and a half inches of snow. Some areas had visibility 
less than a quarter of a mile. The snow will continue to shift 
eastward, and meanwhile cold air will start to move in from the 
northwest. Forecast soundings show some shallow saturation, so could 
get a little bit of mist/freezing drizzle, but overall not expecting 
much in the way of impacts from any precipitation this evening and 

Forecast soundings show a fairly cold thermal profile, and there 
isn't much cooling even after the frontal passage, so overall not 
expecting the winds to be to strong either. Temperatures will cool 
off slightly, with mainly falling temps on Saturday, and then below 
zero readings Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Frigid air associated with an arctic air mass will remain in 
place across the Upper Midwest for Sunday into Monday, with 
temperatures well below normal. The coldest temperatures will be on 
Sunday morning with high temperatures struggling to make it into the 
single digits. Winds should remain light with areas in western 
Minnesota at risk of a possible wind chill advisory. The rest of the 
CWA should remain above the criteria. Highs will rebound into the 
teens for Monday and Tuesday before another brief round of arctic 
air Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday night lows will -5 to -10 
outside of the Twin Cities metro. Wednesday afternoon temperatures 
will rebound again, into the low 20s. Northwest flow aloft develops 
and model guidance shows a weak clipper moving through northern MN 
Wednesday evening. 

The period is forecast to remain dry as any moisture source is cut 
off due to a system in the Ohio Valley. This could change as the 
numerical models tend to struggle with resolving weak shortwaves 
that can develop in the northwestern flow regimes. Confidence is 
low, but beginning to increase for ridging to build in across the 
central CONUS for next Thursday and Friday. If the trend towards 
ridging verifies, temperatures will warm towards normal values in 
the mid 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Band of IFR/LIFR snow will lift from eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin today. Pockets of 1/2 to 1/4 mi visby snow at
times as it moves through. Looking ahead, snow will end but 
expect MVFR/IFR clouds to linger overnight but gradually become 
VFR by Saturday afternoon as northwest winds increase.


The heaviest snow has ended at MSP. Couls see some light snow
showers through the mid afternoon, but overall the limiting
factor will switch over to clouds. MVFR/IFR ceilings this evening
and overnight, becoming VFR on Saturday as northwest winds

Sat...MVFR/VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. 
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. 
Mon...VFR. Wind WNW 5 kts.




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