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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
355 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Near term /now through Wednesday/...upper high pressure over the
extreme southeast conus will expand westward as an upper trough
passes north of the forecast area. A surface high pressure ridge
extending from the western Atlantic, across the Florida Peninsula
and northern Gulf/deep south, will keep a light southerly wind
flow over the forecast area. This flow off the Gulf will hold
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The combination of low level
moisture in place and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, should
result in patchy to areas of fog late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Dry conditions area-wide will persist through the near
term.

Low temperatures tonight will be 1 to 3 degrees above normal,
ranging from 71 to 74 degrees inland areas, with mid to upper 70s
along the coast. High temperatures Wednesday will be 1 to 3 degrees
above normal, ranging from 92 to 97 degrees inland areas, with upper
80s to lower 90s along the coast. /22

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...mid-level
ridge builds over the deep south Wednesday night with a kink in
the northern portion of the ridge axis over the Appalachians,
where a trof axis moves through. A break in the upper ridge
evolves over the southeast US Thursday when a plume of higher
environmental moisture along with an inverted mid-level trof
feature begins to migrate westward by the close of the week. This
suggests a gradual increase in shower/storm chances with each day.
Showers and storms look to become more likely over the interior
northeast zones by Friday with a modest chance elsewhere. Away
from the passage of storm rain-cooled outflow boundaries, daytime
highs range from 92 to up to 97 over the interior with numbers
ranging 87 to 91 closer to the beaches. Heat indices each day
range 101 to 106. Isolated occurrences of a few degrees higher
possible. /10

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...mid-level ridge is progged
to be aligned from the mid-MS River Valley eastward to off the
East Coast Saturday. South of this ridge, an inverted trof axis
slips slowly westward through Sunday along with a zone of higher
deep layer moisture. Considering these players, will maintain an
unsettled pattern going into the weekend with pops ranging 40-60%.
By early next week, there are indications that the eastern US mid-
level ridge begins to break down with a long-wave upper trof digging
southeast over the Great Lakes/upper mid-west Monday. The axis of
the upper trof approaches the southeast US Tuesday and is
accompanied by a southeastward surging front or trof which helps
to pool a zone of deep moisture also spreading to the coast. A
chance of storms remains in the forecast Monday and Tuesday. Highs
and lows close to climatology. /10

&&

Marine...high pressure will continue to build west over the
eastern and north central Gulf through the week leading to a light
southerly wind flow over the marine area through Saturday. The
highest winds and seas will occur over the near shore waters out to
20 nm including inland bays and sounds during the afternoon and
early evening hours due to afternoon heating inland. /22

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 73 93 74 94 74 92 74 92 / 0 10 10 20 10 30 20 40
Pensacola 77 92 77 92 77 91 77 90 / 0 10 10 20 10 40 20 40
Destin 78 90 79 88 79 89 79 88 / 0 10 10 20 10 40 20 40
Evergreen 72 96 74 95 74 94 74 94 / 0 10 10 30 10 60 30 60
Waynesboro 72 92 73 92 73 92 73 92 / 0 10 10 20 10 40 10 60
Camden 72 94 74 94 74 92 74 92 / 0 10 10 20 10 60 30 60
Crestview 72 95 74 96 74 94 73 92 / 0 10 10 30 10 50 20 40

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

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