Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 172027
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
327 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019
tonight and Monday...cool northwest flow coupled with overcast
sky conditions kept chilly readings in place with 50s across the
whole area. A few spots may see record or record tying cool high
temps for the date. Winds will diminish further with nightfall,
however temps will fall around 5 to 10 degrees to the u40s to
l50s. Using an optimistic outlook, low clouds are expected to
remain present well into tonight then diminish somewhat into
early Monday with some persistent wrap-around clouds ascd with
the departing Atlantic low pressure continuing to move in from
the north and west
For Monday, expect mostly sunny conds by around midday with dry
west-northwest flow, as cool morning temps rebound into the u60s to l70s.
The main hazard will be continued rough surf and dangerous rip
currents at area beaches.
Tuesday...(modified previous) an area of low pressure will start
to develop off the coast of southeast U.S., Intensifying Tuesday
night and a high pressure will build over the northern Gulf and
strengthen overnight over southeast U.S. As the high pressure
shifts east on Tuesday, winds turn from west to north on Tuesday
night. Precipitable water values will be around three quarters of an inch and
weather conditions will be dry. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler,
upper 60 to low 70s north, and mid 70s to the south. Morning lows
forecast in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday-Saturday...(modified previous) a high pressure will
build over southeast U.S. On Wednesday, and move into the
Atlantic late on Thursday, with a ridge building into northern Florida
late Friday and retreating east on Saturday. Fair weather
conditions prevail through the rest of the work with temps
warming up a few degrees each day, starting with highs in the
low/mid 70s on Wednesday to upper 70s/lower 80s by Saturday.
Morning lows start on the cold side Wednesday morning, mid to
upper 40s in rural/cooler spots and around 50 degrees elsewhere.
As with daytime temps, morning lows rise steadily through end of
week, near 50/upper 50s for Thursday morning, increase to near
60/mid 60s for Saturday morning. GFS and Euro develop a low
pressure over central U.S. On Friday/Saturday, but there are
major differences in speed, intensity and positioning of this
feature. For now Saturday is dry, but low confidence forecast
until models come together on a solution.
lower clouds prevalent across the area will produce cigs near Florida
008-012 through around 03z then MVFR conds with ceilings near fl015-025
especially along the coast dab-tts-mlb with ocnl MVFR conds well
into tonight. Prevailing VFR conds with brief MVFR conds expected
vrb-fpr-sua after 18/13z
tonight and Monday...seas fully arisen this afternoon into evening
with 41009 reporting 14 ft at 2 PM. Full advisory conditions over
the marine area due to combination of hazardous winds and seas
forecast through at least Monday. Headlines will begin to be
tapered back at mid afternoon Monday with higher winds and seas
eventually over the outer waters by late Mon evening.
Tuesday...moderate breeze to become light to gentle Monday night
and moderate again on Tuesday. Dangerous seas begin to subside to
6 to 8 feet by Tuesday morning. The Small Craft Advisory is
forecast to expire late Tuesday morning, but seas might remain
Wednesday-Thursday...high pressure over southeast U.S. To
shift east towards the Atlantic Wednesday, shifting 10-15 knot
winds from the north on Wednesday to east by Thursday afternoon,
with seas generally around 4-5 feet, subsiding to 3-4 feet on
the river level on the Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast
to stay in minor flood stage, though it will approach moderate
flood stage of 3.00 feet through the rest of today, due to the
combination of northwest winds and higher than normal tide levels
downstream. The river level is forecast to begin a slow decline on
Tuesday while remaining in minor flood stage through at least
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 51 69 52 69 / 0 0 10 10
mco 52 71 54 71 / 0 0 10 10
mlb 51 72 54 73 / 0 0 10 0
vrb 51 72 53 74 / 0 0 10 0
Lee 51 71 54 70 / 0 0 10 0
sfb 51 71 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
orl 53 71 55 71 / 0 0 10 10
fpr 51 71 51 75 / 0 0 10 10
Florida...high surf advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for coastal Volusia-
Indian River-Martin-northern Brevard-southern Brevard-St.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet
to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 am EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.