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fxus62 kmlb 240100 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
900 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019


A fairly sharp frontal trof extending from the northwest Gomex to the mid
Atlc has suppressed the Bermuda ridge axis into the Greater
Antilles/srn Bahamas. Interaction btwn the two has produced a deep
and brisk west/SW flow thru the h100-h70 lyr with mean winds arnd
15kts. These winds will tap a pocket of relatively dry air over the
ern Gomex...h100-h70 mean relative humidity at or below 70pct and 850 mb-h50 avg dewpoint
depressions btwn 5-7c that will largely limit precip potential

A weak mid lvl short wave is noted over the SW peninsula, but
convection assocd with this feature has been isold since the main
round of diurnal convection blew itself out late this aftn/early
this evng. Will keep a slgt chc of shras in for the lake-o region
and points east (blo 20pct). Also, given the strength and depth of
the SW flow, isold shras pushing onshore from the Gomex could make
it further inland than normal...slgt chc of shras over lake co (blo
20pct) looks good. Also will tweak min temps up a few degs as
decoupling is not anticipated overnight.


Aviation...thru 25/00z.
Sfc winds: Thu 24/04z...W/SW 6-9kts bcmg SW 3-5kts. Btwn 24/12z-
24/15z...bcmg west/SW 6-9kts. Btwn 24/15z-24/18z...bcmg west/SW 8-12kts...
north of klal-kmlb ocnl g18-22kts. Btwn 24/21z-24/24z...bcmg west/SW 6-

Weather/vsbys/cigs: thru 24/15z...cigs at or above fl120. Btwn 24/15z-24/18z...north
of kism-ktix chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras. Btwn 24/18z-24/21z...north of
kism-kmlb nmrs MVFR shras/IFR tsras...S of kism-kmlb sct MVFR
shras/IFR tsras. Aft 24/21z...nmrs MVFR shras/IFR tsras all sites.


marginal boating conds overnight as the departing remnants of dew point #3
centered off the Carolinas interacts with the wrn flank of the
Bermuda ridge to generate a gentle to moderate SW breeze nearshore
and moderate to fresh offshore. Limited fetch length will keep seas
2-3ft out to 20nm and 3-4ft 20-60nm, but the offshore component will
generate rough, short pd wind chop with dominant pds at or below 7sec. Slgt
chc of shras/tsras in the Gulf Stream.


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...

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