Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmkx 230738
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
238 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019
Today through Saturday...forecast confidence is high:
High pressure will bring continued quiet weather to southern
Wisconsin through Saturday. Stubborn 5-7 kft clouds continue to
hang around and may persist into the day today. If anything, there
should be enough moisture for decent afternoon cumulus coverage
today and again Saturday. There will be less clouds toward Lake
Michigan under onshore flow.
Temps through Saturday should be within a couple degrees of what
was observed over the last day. Highs will remain a tad below
normal for late August.
Given light winds at night under the high and enough clearing,
there could be some fog in the typical susceptible locations,
though primarily within the Wisconsin River Valley.
Sunday through Monday night...forecast confidence high...
Dry weather will continue through at least the daytime hours on
Sunday, as high pressure pushes into northern New England.
Temperatures should be in the mid to perhaps upper 70s.
Rain/thunderstorm chances start to increase late Sunday night, and
especially into Monday, as two shortwaves approach from the west
and southwest. There continues to be some significant differences
within the guidance as to if and where the two waves phase, with
the GFS favoring a slightly earlier onset to precipitation.
Monday and Monday night should be most active for shower and
thunderstorm activity, before a cold front moves through the
region early Tuesday.
Tuesday through next Friday...forecast confidence moderate to
Fairly breezy west winds are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the region situated between strong low pressure across
northern Ontario, and a large surface high over the Southern
Plains. We'll likely be on the southern periphery of the shower
activity associated with the upper low, so low pops seem
reasonable for this time period.
Another front is expected to swing through the area late in the
workweek, with Canadian high pressure building south as we head
into Labor Day weekend. This should set the stage for temperatures
a few degrees below average as we finish out the month of August.
Other than some patchy fog given enough clearing later tonight,
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
Clouds in the 5-7 kft range continue to linger and may persist
into the day today. Even if these wipe this morning, late morning
and afternoon cumulus clouds are expected, mainly away from Lake
High pressure centered just north of Lake Superior early this
morning will slowly slide eastward into the weekend, reaching
Maine by Sunday morning. North to northeast winds today will
become easterly Saturday, with a southeast component by Sunday as
the high moves on. Winds will be breezy at times through Sunday.
Southeast winds will pick up Monday between an approaching low and
the departing high. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory