Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 220807
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 am EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
high pressure offshore will extend west into eastern North
Carolina through Friday as a trough lingers well inland. A
cold front will slowly approach the area Saturday and move
offshore by Sunday.
Near term /through today/...
as of 345 am Thursday...other than some patchy higher clouds, a
generally clear and warm morning across eastern NC with
temperatures in the lower 70s well inland to lower 80s coast.
With weak mid-level flow and minimal forcing other than sea
breeze interactions, today will be similar to the past day or
two with scattered convection forming during the early to mid
afternoon, mainly along and west of the Highway 17 corridor.
Temperatures will likewise will quite similar to yesterday with
upper 80s to lower 90s inland and mid/upper 80s beaches today.
Short term /tonight/...
as of 350 am Thursday...any convection should again wane fairly
quickly with loss of heating this evening. This will lead to
another warm and humid night with some leftover debris
cloudiness likely. Lows will be in the mid/upper 70s area-wide
Long term /Friday through Thursday/... as of 345 am thurs... a slow moving cold front will approach enc
Friday, and cross through the forecast area over the weekend,
leading to another period of unsettled weather which may continue
into early next week.
Friday through Friday night...a cold front will slowly approach enc
from the north allowing for scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop late Friday afternoon, mainly over the
northern half of the forecast area. Ahead of the front, temperatures
will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90's inland as precipitable water values are
above 2.00" leading to unstable conditions. Cape values are expected
to range 2500-3000 j/kg, Li values at or above -7 and shear 15-20kt...
allowing for strong to severe thunderstorms with the main threat of
damaging winds. Continued with chance to likely pops for this
northern half, with some heavy rain and training cells possible.
Southern zones esp near Crystal Coast and srn obx should remain on
the dry side. Convection should ease southward through the overnight
affecting much of the fa, but at the same time slowly weakening
ending the heaviest rain threat after midnight.
Saturday...models agreement with the cold front slowly crossing
through NC on Saturday, passing south of the region and off the
southern NC coast by Saturday evening. Maintained the likely pops
for especially srn zones on Sat where the best coverage of precip is
anticipated as the front moves south. Heavy rain and training of
cells is possible and flooding may be an issue, especially
considering the copious amounts of rain we have seen this past week.
Sunday... models continue to show less precip coverage as high
pressure wedges in from the north, but a low pressure off the coast
can keep clouds and some scattered showers, especially over the
southern and eastern zones. Expect highs in the low 80s under a north to
NE winds. Low temps more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s interior
to low/mid 70s beaches.
Monday through Wednesday...models are slightly a better agree with
the stall front off the NC coast, while a low pressure system moves
along it and moves NE away from the coast as high pressure builds in
models have been trending drier for Monday and Tuesday, but went
with chance pops Monday through Wednesday, best chances nearer the
coast. Cooler temperatures will likely continue with highs only in
the low to mid 80s, and low temps into the 60s and low 70s.
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through 06z Friday/...
as of 1250 am Thursday...no changes for this taf cycle as VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Precipitation has largely ended inland and it should remain dry
until diurnal convection breaks out inland during the afternoon.
Have included vicinity shower for all of the taf sites during
the afternoon with scattered to broken cumulus. Guidance
continues to indicate little in the way of fog overnight given
widespread mid and high level clouds.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 345 am thurs... VFR conditions through Friday afternoon, then
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop as a
slow moving cold front moves into the area late in the day and
overnight. The front will slowly push south through the area this
weekend, leading to some periods of MVFR to IFR conditions.
Conditions are expected to improve Sunday and Monday.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 350 am Thursday...a few gusts close to 25 knots continue
in the central waters and over the Pamlico Sound, but readings
are slowly trending down and will likely be able to let the Small Craft Advisory
expire at 5 am on the Pamlico Sound and at 7 am on the coastal
waters. The remainder of the day should have SW winds 10-20
knots with seas 3-5 feet with some longer period swell energy
continuing over the northern waters (11-14 sec). Winds tonight
continue SW at 10-20 knots with seas 3-5 feet.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 345 am thurs...a slow moving cold front will approach the
marine zones late Friday. Ahead of the front, SW winds 15-20 kts
with possible gust to 25 kts and seas 3-5 ft. Winds and seas then
weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front enters the region. Winds
will turn to the west at 10-15 kts early Saturday, and then as the
front slowly sinks south winds will turn to the north/NE behind it
through the day. May see some ocnl Small Craft Advisory develop again Sunday into
early next week as sustained 15-20 kt winds develop with seas
approaching 6 ft.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EDT this morning for amz152-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT early this morning for