Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmhx 150758 
afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
258 am EST sun Dec 15 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will build across the area today then slide
offshore tonight and Monday. A strong cold front will cross
the area Tuesday night, with cold high pressure building in
through Friday. A coastal storm is possible by next weekend.

&&

Near term /through today/...
as of 220 am Sunday...quiet weather as high pres builds across
with mainly clr skies. Low lvl thicknesses support temps near to
slightly above normal with upr 50s to lower 60s expected.

&&

Short term /tonight/...
as of 220 am Sunday...high pressure will begin to slide
offshore with skies remaining mostly clear. Winds will be quite
light and with good radiational cooling have lows reaching upr
30s typically cooler inland spots with low/mid 40s beaches.

&&

Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 215 am sun...warm weather is expected through Tuesday,
before a cold front crosses the region and brings another round
of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much colder conditions
expected behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with
a possible coastal storm developing next weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...high pressure will ridge in from offshore
through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front and upper level
trough approach from the west. Warm SW flow and sunny skies
will allow temps to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday
afternoon. Then on Tuesday, guidance has continued to delay the
passage of the cold front slightly, which will lead to a warmer
solution for Tuesday, with highs likely reaching the low 70s in
many locations despite mostly cloudy skies.

Expect chances for showers to increase from west to east
Tuesday morning, with widespread rain expected from late morning
through Tuesday night. Have increased pops along the coast
overnight, as the front looks a bit slower to exit off the
coast. Given the warm and moist atmosphere, some isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible, but should be relegated to
the immediate coast and offshore. Severe threat looks marginal,
as uncertainty remains with how much instability will develop
onshore, but the dynamic profile is impressive with 50-70 kts of
bulk shear present.

Wednesday and Thursday...much colder conditions are expected
behind the cold front Wednesday, as strong cold air advection will limit temps
from rising very much during the day despite sunny skies.
Expect below average highs, mostly in the low to mid 40s. Then,
as the base of the upper level trough moves across the area
Wednesday night and into Thursday, temps will drop into the
upper 20s to low 30s overnight, and then only rebound into the
low 40s for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Saturday...despite continued modest cold air advection Friday,
heights will build as a weak upper level ridge approaches from
the west. This will lead to moderating temperatures with highs
reaching the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Then on
Saturday, forecast guidance is indicating the possibility of a
strong coastal storm forming somewhere along or well off the
East Coast. Considerable uncertainty remains, as models have
varied greatly from run to run.

&&

Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1215 am Sunday...high confidence in VFR thru period with
mainly clr skies as high pres builds across. Dewpts are
dropping inland and combined with a west breeze shld preclude fog
formation thru daybreak.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 245 am sun...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday
morning when another cold front moves through the area and may
bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions return later Wednesday through the end of the
period.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 220 am Sunday...winds have started to diminish on the
sounds as best surge departs and high pres builds in from the
west. With winds expected to cont to diminish rest of the night
have dropped the Small Craft Advisory for the sounds and Alligator river. Winds
still gusty coastal wtrs with rough seas 5 to 10 ft. Winds will
diminish to 10 to 15 kts today then become light tonight as the
high crosses. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft today with Small Craft Advisory
ending nrn and srn wtrs mid day and central wtrs later this
aftn. Seas will cont to subside to 2 to 4 ft tonight.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 245 am sun...decent boating conditions expected Monday,
but then winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday,
with continued strong winds and hazardous seas lasting through
Thursday.

Winds will be SW 10-15 kts on Monday, and then increase to 20-30
kts on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to cross the waters
overnight into Wednesday morning, with winds turning to the north-northwest
at 25-30 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, winds
become 15-20 kts, except for a period Wednesday night into
Thursday morning when winds increase to 20-30 kts. Seas will be
3-5 ft Monday, and then increase to 6-10 ft Tuesday. Seas then
subside slightly to 5-8 ft on Wednesday through most of
Thursday.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for amz152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for amz150-156-158.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mhx
near term...rf

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations