Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS62 KMHX 141823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
223 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure will 
quickly pass through the area on Tuesday. Low pressure will move
up the east coast Wednesday, and push a cold front offshore 
Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build in late week 
and into next weekend.


As of 220 PM Mon...Very quiet conditions tonight as high pres 
builds in from the NW. Lingering Cu will dissipate quickly by 
evening with clr skies overnight. With lowering dewpts and light
to calm winds inland expect excellent radiational cooling with 
cooler inland spots reaching upper 40s. Warmer beaches with 
light breeze and warm water temps keeping lows in the upr 50s to
mid 60s. 


As of 220 PM Mon...High pres will quickly pass offshore N of 
the region Tue. Skies will be mostly sunny to start then will 
likely see some increase in mainly mid/high clouds late espcly 
srn tier in advance of next system. After cool start temps will 
warm nicely reaching 75 to 80 again most spots with comfortable 


As of 330 AM Monday...A stronger low pressure area and 
attendant cold front will move across the area Wednesday with 
high pressure building in through the rest of the week bringing 
a cooler and drier airmass.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...High pressure migrates 
off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night as a more robust upper 
level system approaches from the west and an area of low 
pressure develops across the Southeast and deepens as it tracks 
across the Carolina piedmont and offshore Wednesday. Isentropic 
lift increases across the area Tuesday evening with widespread 
precip developing across the area after midnight. A warm front 
will lift across portions of the area Wednesday morning before 
the cold front pushes through in the afternoon. Modest 
instability will develop in the warm sector with strong shear 
and forcing present bringing a chance for thunderstorms ahead of
the cold front. There may also be a risk for severe storms as 
well with MUCAPE values potentially reaching 1000-1500 J/kg with
deep layer shear around 40 kts. There is some uncertainly in 
just how much instability will occur though as the 14/00z NAM 
and GFS have trended a little eastward with the low, tracking it
near or along the coast, bringing less instability to much of 
the area, especially inland, however, the CMC and ECMWF still 
have more of an inland track. We could see beneficial rainfall 
with models showing widespread QPF amounts around 3/4 to 1 inch.
Temps remain seasonably mild Tuesday and Wednesday with highs 
in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night remain mild ahead of
the cold front with low mainly in the mid 60s. Strong CAA 
develops behind the cold front late Wednesday and especially 
Wednesday night with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland to mid 50s coast.

Thursday through Sunday...Strong high pressure builds in from 
the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much 
cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows 
in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the 
coast. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with ridging
building aloft with dry conditions persisting and max temps 
warming into the 70s.


Short Term /through tonight/... 
As of 130 PM Mon...VFR expected for the rest of the day. Clear
skies and calm winds overnight will be conducive for patchy fog
across the area. Models are in disagreement over coverage and
intensity, but the coastal plains look to be the most likely
area to produce fog at this time. 

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
As of 4 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected Tuesday with
high pressure migrating north of the area. A strengthening low 
pressure area will lift across the area Tuesday night into 
Wednesday with widespread sub-VFR conditions in showers and 
isolated thunderstorms expected. A strong cold front will push 
through Wednesday afternoon with pred VFR conditions returning 
and continuing through the end of the week as strong high 
pressure builds in from the west. Strong south to southwest 
winds expected ahead of the front and could see gusts to around 
25 kt at the terminals Tuesday night and Wednesday with a period
of gusty northwest winds late Wednesday behind the front.


Short Term /through Tue/... 
As of 220 PM Mon...Cold front will drift offshore this evening
with high pres building in from the NW overnight. Mainly W 
winds 5 to 15 kt will become N behind the front. On Tue the high
quickly moves offshore to the N with NE winds 5 to 15 kts become
E late. Seas mainly 2 to 4 ft tonight and 2 to 3 ft Tue.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... 
As of 4 AM Monday...Winds veer to SE and S and begin to 
increase Tuesday night ahead of the next system with SCA 
conditions expected to return Wednesday as a low pressure moves 
across the area. A warm front will lift across the waters 
Tuesday night ahead of the low with winds becoming south to 
southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts and seas 
building to 6-10 ft Wednesday. The front pushes through 
Wednesday afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25 
kt Wednesday, which gradually diminishes through the day 
Thursday. Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside 
through the end of the work week.


NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations